Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) affecting Batanes... [Update #010]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 15 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 15 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #020
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SHANSHAN (LUIS) STRENGTHENS INTO A POWERFUL CATEGORY THREE
TYPHOON...NOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST, ENDANGERING EASTERN
TAIWAN...BATANES UNDER PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING NUMBER
THREE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving
NW slowly for the next 12 hours, before taking a more Nor-
therly track tonight. This typhoon may attain Category 4
status briefly (215 km/hr) tomorrow morning (Sep 16) as it
passes just to the East Coast of Taiwan or over the Islands
of Yaeyama. The core (eye & eyewall) shall pass some 230 km
WNW of Okinawa, Japan by midnight of Sunday, Sep 17. The 3
to 5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 18-20) shows the system
weakening to a Category 1 typhoon while accelerating NE
across the Korea Strait Monday morning (Sep 18). All inte-
rests in South Korea & the main Japanese Island of Kyushu
should closely monitor the progress of Typhoon Shanshan.

+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's outer rainbands are now spreading
across portions of Luzon becoming more frequent across Ca-
gayan, Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Islands, Yaeyama Islands and
Eastern Taiwan. Cloudy skies with sometimes moderate to
heavy rains with increasing gale force winds of from 60 to
100 km/hr can be expected along its outer bands. Large ocean
swells generated by SHANSHAN are now affecting the beach-
front areas of Northern Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan
Islands, Yaeyama Islands & Eastern Taiwan. Precautionary
measures must be implemented if necessary, along the affec-
ted areas. Meanwhile, coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to
12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dan-
gerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the
north of where the center makes a passby over Eastern
Taiwan-Yaeyama-Okinawa Islands tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon
may be slightly enhanced along the western sections of
Luzon beginning today. Cloudy skies with some widespread
rains & thunderstorms can be expected.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/96W/1006 mb) over the Eastern Marianas has improved
over the past 12 hours and was estimated about 990 km ESE
of Guam (12.7N 153.9E)..moving WNW slowly with winds of
30 km/hr. This disturbance will be closely monitored for
further development into a Tropical Depression within
a day or two.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.1º N...LONGITUDE 124.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 260 KM (140 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 405 KM (220 NM) NNE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 710 KM (385 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 515 KM (280 NM) SSE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 944 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN TAIWAN-YAEYAMA ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 36 FEET (10.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT TIME FRI SEPTEMBER 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#02 - CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS &
      NORTHERN CAGAYAN.
#01 - REST OF CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO,
      KALINGA, ABRA & ISABELA.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 22.1N 123.8E / 205-250 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 23.9N 123.8E / 215-260 KPH

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 27.9N 126.0E / 160-195 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.8N 124.5E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERI-
PHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
EAST OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, THE TYPHOON HAS SLOWED CONSIDE-
RABLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST. THIS WESTERN
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CHINA, ALLOWING TY SHANSHAN TO
TAKE A STEADY POLEWARD TURN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
FORECAST TO COMMENCE AROUND 72 HOURS AS THE FOREMENTIONED
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS AND BEGINS TO ABSORB TY

SHANSHAN...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 20.9N 124.3E / NW @ 11 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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__________________________________________________________________________________________

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