Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 14W (LUIS) enters PAR... [Update #01]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #01

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [LUIS]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 10 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 11 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002
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THE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) WEST OF GUAM HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
...ENTERING
THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...NOW LOCALLY
NAMED AS "LUIS."

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 14W is expected to continue moving NW'ly
for the next 2 days and become a Tropical Storm early tomorrow
morning. 3-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 13) shows 14W turning
slightly to the West in the direction of Okinawa and the Ryukyu
Island Chain.

+ EFFECTS: N/A.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon cu-
rrently enhanced by a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) in the vicinity
of Batanes and is currently bringing cloudy skies with scattered
rains & thunderstorms across Luzon becoming more frequent along
the western sections including Quezon and Bicol Region.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The broad Tropical Disturbance (LPA/95W/
1006 mb) West of Batanes Group of Islands is now over the South
China Sea or about 255 km NNW of Laoag City (20.4N 120.0E)...
it was moving West at 19 kph towards the Southern China.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch
changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.0º N...LONGITUDE 134.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,360 KM (735 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 1,325 KM (715 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 3: 1,270 KM (685 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,460 KM (790 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM SUN SEPTEMBER 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 18.1N 133.7E / 65-85 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 19.4N 132.9E / 75-95 KPH

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 21.7N 131.2E / 95-120 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 16.6N 134.8E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN INCREA-
SINGLY DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TD
14W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR). THROUGH 72 HRS.
TD 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STHPR...(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 15.8N 135.3E / NW @ 15 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 14W (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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