Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) passing over Yaeyama Islands... [Update #012]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #012

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 16 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 16 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #024
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TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS) REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
WITH WINDS OF 220 KM/HR...EYE PASSING OVER YAEYAMA ISLAND

CHAIN...NOW HEADING POLEWARD TOWARDS SOUTH KOREA-KYUSHU,
JAPAN AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to track NNE for
the next 24 hours, passing about 270 km WNW of Okinawa to-
night. This typhoon shall weaken as it accelerates towards
South Korea-Kyushu Area. The 2 to 4-day Long Range Forecast
(Sep 18-19) still shows the system moving NNE to NE across
the Korea Strait early Monday morning (Sep 18) and shall
transform into an Extratropical Cyclone while moving across
the Sea of Japan Monday afternoon (Sep 18) or Tuesday early
morning (Sep 19). All interests in South Korea & the main
Japanese Island of Kyushu should closely monitor the pro-
gress of this dangerous typhoon.

+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's core currently over Yaeyama Islands
with the eye passing over the area. Typhoon conditions with
winds of greater than 100 km/hr accompanied with very heavy
rainfall can be expected over the eyewall (ring of intense
convection surrounding the eye). Outer bands spreading across
Eastern Taiwan. Cloudy skies with sometimes moderate to heavy
rains with increasing tropical storm-force winds of 60 km/hr
with higher gusts can be expected along its outer bands. Pre-
cautionary measures must be fully implemented, along the
affected areas. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18
feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dange-
rous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north
of where the center makes a passby over Eastern Taiwan-Yaeyama
Islands today.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon conti-
nues to be slightly enhanced over Western Visayas & Western
Luzon including Mindoro and Palawan. Cloudy skies with some
passing rains or thunderstorms can be expected today.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/96W/1006 mb) over the Eastern Marianas has been relocated
and was estimated about 1,310 km ENE of Guam (17.7N 156.2E)...
currently almost stationary, with sustained winds of 35 km/hr.
This disturbance will be closely monitored for further develop-
ment into a Tropical Depression within a day or two.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.6º N...LONGITUDE 124.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 245 KM (132 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 2: 500 KM (270 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 455 KM (245 NM) WSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 250 KM (135 NM) ENE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH KOREA-KYUSHU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 40 FEET (12.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT TIME SAT SEPTEMBER 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 26.2N 124.7E / 220-270 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 28.6N 125.9E / 185-230 KPH

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 34.8N 129.8E / 100-130 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.1N 123.8E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS TAKEN A NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
EAST OF THE STORM. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA HAS BROKEN DOWN A SECONDARY
STEERING RIDGE TO THE WEST OF TY SHANSHAN. AS THIS TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, TY SHANSHAN
WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXHIBITING EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AFTER 36 HOURS. TY SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COM-
PLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 24.3N 123.9E / NNE @ 17 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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__________________________________________________________________________________________

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