Thursday, September 21, 2006

Typhoon YAGI (16W) - Update #008

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
Name: TYPHOON YAGI [16W/0614] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 21 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 21 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #016
_______________________________________________________________________
  
POWERFUL TYPHOON YAGI (16W) STARTING TO TURN WEST-NORTH-
WEST...APPROACHING AGRIHAN ISLAND.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YAGI is expected to continue heading
WNW for the next 24 to 36 hours, becoming Super Typhoon this
afternoon & passing North of Agrihan Is. tonight. By tomorrow
afternoon (Fri Sep 22), YAGI shall start moving NW'ly with its
eye & core (eyewall) passing very close to Iwo Jima Island
early Saturday morning (Sep 23). The 3 to 5-day (Sep 24-26)
Long Range Forecast shows the system doing a sharp Northward
turn, recurving later to the NE - sparing Kyushu, Japan on a
direct hit, but affecting the coastal areas. During this time-
frame, YAGI shall move into an environment of increasing wind
shear and lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs), its strength
weakening down to a Category 1 typhoon and eventually losing
tropical characteristics, becoming an Extratropical Cyclone
Tuesday next week (Sep 26). All interests in Iwo Jima, Nor-
thernmost Marianas & Southeastern Japan especially Honshu
should continue closely monitoring the progress of this
approaching typhoon. 

+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's southern outer rainbands expected
to reach Agrihan Island this afternoon. Increasing dangerous
storm tides with large battering waves can be expected along
the Northernmost Mariana & Iwo Jima Islands today until Satur-
day (Sep 23)...coastal flooding expected (13 to 18 feet).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.8º N...LONGITUDE 150.0º E {SatFix}
DISTANCE 1: 685 KM (370 NM) NE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 2:  895 KM (483 NM) NE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,055 KM (570 NM) SE OF IWO JIMA ISLAND
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 630 KM (340 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 39 FEET (11.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TIME THU SEPTEMBER 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEP: 20.7N 147.6E / 240-295 KPH / WNW @ 30 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEP: 22.3N 145.0E / 250-305 KPH / NW @ 28 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEP: 25.4N 141.9E / 230-280 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.7N 150.8E.
^TY YAGI HAS MAINTAINED ITS TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
HONSHU. BY 12 HOURS, TY YAGI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE AND TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...(more info)

>> YAGI {pronounced: ya~gi}, meaning: Capricornus (goat). 
   Name contributed by: Japan
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh......noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
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Posted by MJ Klein at 08:44

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