Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) moving away from Batanes... [Update #011]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 15 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 16 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
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TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS) REACHES CATEGORY FOUR IN THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE...NOW ON A
NORTHERLY TRACK, CLOSER TO YAEYAMA ISLANDS...MIGHT
BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to track NNE for
the next 24 hours, passing across the tiny islands of Yae-
yama early tomorrow morning (Sat Sep 16). This typhoon may
become a Super Typhoon if rapid intensification process
continues. The core (eye & eyewall) of Shanshan shall pass
about 220 km WNW of Okinawa, Japan tomorrow late afternoon.
The 2 to 4-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 17-19) still shows
the system accelerating NNE to NE across the Korea Strait
early Monday morning (Sep 18) and shall transform into an
Extratropical Cyclone while moving across the Sea of Japan
Monday evening (Sep 18) or Tuesday morning (Sep 19). All
interests in South Korea & the main Japanese Island of
Kyushu should closely monitor the progress of this dange-
rous typhoon.

+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's outer bands have been expanding
during the past 6 hours and have covered the whole of
Taiwan and portions of Taiwan Strait. Rest of Northern
Luzon including the Islands of Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan
remains under the SW portion of the Outer Bands. Cloudy
skies with sometimes moderate to heavy rains with increa-
sing gale force winds of 60 to 100 km/hr can be ex-
pected along its outer bands. Meanwhile, worsening
typhoon conditions with winds of greater than 100 km/hr
& heavy rainfall can be expected over Yaeyama Islands
overnight until tomorrow, as the Inner Bands as well as
the Core (eye & eyewall) of SHANSHAN approaches. Large
ocean swells generated by Shanshan continues to affect
the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-
Babuyan Islands, Ryukyus, Yaeyama Islands & Eastern
Taiwan. Precautionary measures must be implemented if
necessary, along the affected areas. Meanwhile, coastal
Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...
can be expected near and to the north of where the center
passes by over Eastern Taiwan-Yaeyama Islands tonight
until tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon
continues to be slightly enhanced over Sulu Sea, Visayas
& Western Mindanao becoming more frequent along the Wes-
tern Coasts - and is now starting to manifest along the
Western Coast of Luzon including Mindoro and Palawan.
Cloudy skies with some widespread rains & thunderstorms
can be expected tonight until tomorrow.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/96W/1006 mb) over the Eastern Marianas continues to
organize and was estimated about 485 km NE of Guam
(15.0N 149.0E)..moving WNW slowly with winds of 25 km/hr.
This disturbance will be closely monitored for further
development into a Tropical Depression within a day
or two.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 22.7º N...LONGITUDE 124.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 360 KM (195 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 2: 325 KM (175 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 580 KM (313 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 295 KM (160 NM) ESE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 927 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAEYAMA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 40 FEET (12.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM HKT TIME FRI SEPTEMBER 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#01 - BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 24.4N 124.5E / 230-280 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 26.6N 125.4E / 220-270 KPH

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 31.7N 128.2E / 160-195 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 22.2N 124.0E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS TAKEN A NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
EAST OF THE STORM. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA HAS BROKEN DOWN A SECONDARY
STEERING RIDGE TO THE WEST OF TY SHANSHAN. AS THIS TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, TY SHANSHAN
WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXHIBITING EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AFTER 36 HOURS. TY SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COM-
PLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 22.3N 123.9E / NNW @ 11 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

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