Thursday, September 14, 2006

Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) threatens Extreme Northern Luzon... [Update #07]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 13 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 14 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS) HAS MAINTAINED ITS WESTERLY TRACK
CLOSER TO BATANES-TAIWAN AREA...STORM WARNING SIGNALS
NOW RAISED OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving
Westward for the next 24 hours and turn slowly to the North
Friday Sep 15 as the High Pressure Ridge to its north re-
treats. The 3 to 5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 16-18) shows
the system still heading North (Saturday morning) passing
directly over Yaeyama Islands, sparing Okinawa. The core
(eye & eyewall) shall still pass some 160 km NW of Okinawa,
Japan Sunday afternoon (Sep 17) as a Category 1 Typhoon,
before accelerating towards Southern Japan. All interests
in the main Japanese Islands of Kyushu & Shikoku should
closely monitor the progress of Typhoon SHANSHAN.


+ EFFECTS: This typhoon is not yet affecting any islands at
the moment. However, its outer rainbands are expected to
reach Batanes tomorrow and Okinawa-Yaeyama-Ryukyu Islands
Friday or Saturday (Sep 15 or 16). Large ocean swells ge-
nerated by SHANSHAN are now affecting the islands. Mean-
while, coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 10 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the north
of where the center makes a passby over Yaeyama-Okinawa-
Ryukyu Islands Saturday & Sunday
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon re-
treats further and is now in the vicinity off the coast of
Vietnam.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/95W/1006 mb) over the South China Sea is now
Tropical Depression 15W (Unnamed)...For more details,
subscribe to out Asia-Pacific Email List.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch 
changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.2º N...LONGITUDE 127.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 615 KM (332 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2:  680 KM (366 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 700 KM (378 NM) SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 840 KM (455 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 958 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM HKT TIME WED SEPTEMBER 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: 
#01 - BATANES, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS & 
      CAGAYAN

           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 20.4N 126.8E / 165-205 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 125.8E / 175-215 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 21.9N 124.5E / 185-230 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.2N 128.2E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS DECREASED ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER A
BRIEF ACCELERATION AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
SOUTH OF WESTERN JAPAN. TY SHANSHAN WILL BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS, WITH A NORTHWARD
TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN
HAS BEEN DELAYED IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER THAN ANTICI-
PATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING
IN A LONGER WESTWARD TRANSLATION. THE TIMING OF THE
RECURVATURE DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECUR-
VATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning:
A fairly 
   common pet name for young girls. Name contributed 
   by:
Hong Kong, China

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.3N 128.3E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh......noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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