Saturday, September 30, 2006

Typhoon XANGSANE (MILENYO) approaching Vietnam...[Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 30 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 30 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018

Note: We apologize for the non-updates during the passage of this typhoon which disrupted
power and communications utilities. The eye of the storm passed some 30 km south
of my station. Luckily, our servers are located in California and Canada for non-disruption
of website updates.
_______________________________________________________________________
  
XANGSANE (MILENYO) CONSIDERED ONE OF THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE
EVER TO STRIKE THE PHILIPPINES SINCE SUPER TYPHOON ANGELA
(ROSING) OF NOVEMBER 03, 1995...IS NOW DANGEROUSLY MOVING
CLOSER TO VIETNAM.

...ALL INTERESTS IN VIETNAM SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF XANGSANE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
T2K POST ANALYSIS DATA:

The Eye passed about 30 km SSW of my T2k Weather Station (Naga City)
around 11 PM Wed Sep 27. The station recorded highest wind gust of 106
km/hr blowing from the North at 11:16 PM (15:16 GMT) & low barometer
(atmospheric pressure) of 986.3 millibars from 10:45 to 10:59 PM. View
data here: text & graph.The total rainfall recorded for the past 48 hrs
was 159.6 mm.

**Our T2K Mobile Service (SMS) resumes service after electric power has
been restored. T2K website is being updated via PLDT WeROAM &
BayanTel DSL.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: XANGSANE is forecast to continue
tracking West to WSW across the South China Sea and make
landfall over Central Vietnam just south of Da Nhang early
tomorrow morning (Oct 1). After making landfall, this
typhoon shall dissipate rapidly along the Laos-Cambodia-
Vietnam border tomorrow afternoon. All interests in Viet-
nam, Laos & Cambodia should closely monitor the progress
of Xangsane. 

+ EFFECTS: XANGSANE's outer circulation remains large with
its outer bands spreading across Hainan Island and Vietnam
...Inner bands of this typhoon expected to arrive along the
east coast of Vietnam sometime this afternoon or tonight.
Cloudy skies with passing rains and winds not exceeding 50
km/hr will be expected along the affected areas situated
within the outer bands. Meanwhile, the shipping routes over
the South China Sea will continue to be disrupted due to the
expanding circulation of XANGSANE. Improving weather condi-
tions can be expected today over Western Luzon and Visayas
as the storm moves farther away from the Philippines. Coas-
tal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can
be expected near and to the north or east of where the
center of Xangsane makes landfall in Vietnam early tomorrow.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/91W/
1004 mb) over the Caroline Islands has remained disorganized
over the past 6 hours, however its circulation continue to
expand. It was located about 1,590 km ESE of Catarman, Nor-
thern Samar (11.8N 139.2E)...moving WSW @ 7 km/hr during
the past 12 hours. This system will be closely monitored
for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within
a day or two. Kindly check out the latest Western Pacific satellite image
by clicking this link.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.5º N...LONGITUDE 112.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 475 KM (257 NM) ESE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 2: 545 KM (295 NM) ESE OF HUE, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 3: 910 KM (490 NM) WNW OF METRO MANILA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 927 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: VIETNAM-LAOS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 25 FEET (7.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT SAT SEPTEMBER 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NOW LOWERED.
           
12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEP: 15.5N 110.9E / 215-260 KPH / WEST @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCT: 15.3N 109.1E / 165-205 KPH / WEST @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCT: 14.9N 107.7E / 95-120 KPH / WSW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.5N 113.2E.
^TY XANGSANE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA...
(more info)

>> XANGSANE {pronounced: xang~sa}, meaning: Elephant. 
   Name contributed by: Laos
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY XANGSANE (MILENYO)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Posted by MJ Klein at 10:07 0 comments

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Typhoon XANGSANE (MILENYO) now over Sorsogon...[Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 28 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
_______________________________________________________________________
  
XANGSANE (MILENYO) RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY
4 TYPHOON WITH WINDS OF 215 KM/HR...NOW OVER EASTERN
SORSOGON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: XANGSANE is expected to continue to
track WNW for the next 2 to 3 days and weaken slightly
- due to interaction of Luzon's land mass. The Eye and
its core is forecast to make landfall over Legazpi
City and pass over head Mayon Volcano around 8 PM
tonight, continuing moving across Polangui, Albay and
shall be over Iriga City-Baao Area around 12 Midnight
(Thu Sep 28). XANGSANE shall be in the vicinity of
Pili, Camarines Sur or about 10 km. South of Naga City
around 2 or 3 AM tomorrow (Thu) and shall cross the
Ragay Hills passing over Quirino Highway around 6 AM
tomorrow. This typhoon shall move across Southern
Quezon tomorrow afternoon before heading towards
Laguna-Metro Manila Area. The 30 to 48-hour (Sep 28 to
30) Medium-Range Forecast shows XANGSANE passing over
Metro Manila tomorrow evening around 7 PM before exiting
the South China Sea via Subic Bay early Friday morning.
XANGSANE shall maintain Typhoon status over the South
China Sea as it heads for Vietnam area by Sunday or
Monday (Oct 1 or 2). All interests in the Bicol, Quezon
and Southern Tagalog Provinces should closely monitor
the progress of this dangerous Typhoon. 

+ EFFECTS: XANGSANE's Eyewall is now affecting Rapu-Rapu
& Bacacay Islands, Sorsogon, and the whole of Albay.
While, its inner bands continues to spread across Bicol
Region, Northern and Western Samar, Ticao & Burias Islands
& Masbate. Outer Bands continues to affect Metro Manila,
Southern Tagalog Provinces & the whole of Visayas including
Boracay Beach Resort and is now spreading across Central
Luzon. Cloudy with moderate to heavy rains and winds not in
excess of 55 km/hr can be expected today along its outer
bands...while increasing wind speeds along its inner bands.
Meanwhile, extreme typhoon conditions can be expected tonight
and tomorrow along Bicol Region and Southern Quezon as XANG-
SANE's core (eye + eyewall) passes by. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the north or east of where the center of Xang-
sane makes landfall in Bicol Region particularly the
provinces of Albay & Sorsogon tonight.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 13.1º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30 NM) EAST OF LEGAZPI CITY, ALBAY
DISTANCE 2: 55 KM (30 NM) SOUTH OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 3: 120 KM (65 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, CAM SUR
DISTANCE 4: 180 KM (98 NM) SE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 927 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ALBAY-CAMARINES SUR
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVERAGE/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 30 FEET (9.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM HKT WED SEPTEMBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - SORSOGON, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES PROVINCES, SOU-
      THERN QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, MARINDUQUE, MASBATE, 
      ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, SAMAR PROVINCES, TICAO ISLAND. 
#02 - ROMBLON, REST OF QUEZON, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, 
      ORIENTAL MINDORO, NORTHERN LEYTE & BILIRAN ISLAND. 
#01 - OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, CAVITE, BULACAN, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, 
      NUEVA ECIJA, AURORA, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN LEYTE, 
      CAMOTES ISLAND, NORTHERN CEBU, NORTHERN ILOILO, 
      NORTHERN ANTIQUE, AKLAN, CAPIZ, DINAGAT & SIARGAO 
      ISLANDS.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEP: 13.5N 123.2E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEP: 14.2N 121.7E / 165-205 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEP: 14.9N 120.0E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.9N 124.6E.
^STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA HAS STEERED
TY XANGSANE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY
XANGSANE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
AS THE STEERING RIDGE MAINTAINS THIS ORIENTATION THROUGH 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE
TO REORIENT ON A MORE EAST-WEST AXIS, AND AS A RESULT, TY 
XANGSANE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF TY XANGSANE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS IT PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS, IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA...(more info)

>> XANGSANE {pronounced: xang~sa}, meaning: Elephant. 
   Name contributed by: Laos
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (08 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 13.0N 124.3E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY XANGSANE (MILENYO)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Posted by MJ Klein at 00:54 0 comments

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Typhoon XANGSANE (MILENYO) off coast of Northern Samar...[Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
_______________________________________________________________________
  
XANGSANE (MILENYO) BECOMES THE 10TH TYPHOON OF THE 2006
SEASON...NOW POUNDING THE NORTHERN COAST OF SAMAR.

...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL, QUEZON & AURORA
PROVINCES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
XANGSANE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: XANGSANE is expected to slightly
accelerate WNW for the next 24 hours and still intensify,
reaching a forecast peak winds of 140 km/hr this after-
noon. The Eye and its core is forecast to enter Lagonoy
Gulf around midnight & shall make landfall over Camarines
Sur around 2 AM local time tomorrow (Thu Sep 28) - passing
across the towns of Goa, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Calabanga, San
Miguel Bay and shall enter Camarines Norte through Mount
Labo or just to the SW of Daet before noontime tomorrow.
XANGSANE is forecast to exit Lamon Bay Thursday afternoon.
The 2 to 4-day (Sep 29 to Oct 1) Long-Range Forecast shows
the typhoon crossing Central Luzon early Friday morning
(Sep 29) & finally moving out into the South China Sea
via Zambales before noontime, Friday (Sep 29). XANGSANE
shall then regain Typhoon status over the South China Sea
as it heads for Hainan-Vietnam area by Sunday, Oct 1st.
All interests in the Bicol, Quezon and Aurora provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this typhoon. 

+ EFFECTS: XANGSANE's inner bands continues to cover the
whole Island of Samar & now approaching Bicol Region &
Masbate...Outer Bands now reaching Southern Quezon & the
whole of Visayas including Boracay Beach Resort. Cloudy
with moderate to heavy rains and winds not in excess of
55 km/hr can be expected today along its outer bands...
while increasing wind speeds of up to 100 km/hr along
its inner bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be
expected tomorrow & Thursday along Bicol and Northern
Samar as XANGSANE's core (eye + eyewall) approaches.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves can be expected near and to the north or east of
where the center of Xangsane makes landfall in Bicol
Region early tomorrow.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 12.4º N...LONGITUDE 125.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 140 KM (75 NM) EAST OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR
DISTANCE 2: 220 KM (120 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 3: 250 KM (135 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 4: 320 KM (173 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM HKT WED SEPTEMBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, 
      CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE, TICAO ISLAND & SAMAR 
      PROVINCES. 
#01 - CAMARINES NORTE, QUEZON PROVINCES, MARINDUQUE, 
      ROMBLON, LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN ISLANDS, 
      CAMOTES ISLANDS, DINAGAT & SIARGAO ISLANDS.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEP: 12.8N 125.0E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEP: 13.6N 123.6E / 130-160 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEP: 15.1N 120.4E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.2N 126.2E.
^RIDGING BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF TY XANGSANE HAS RESULTED
IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND A STRONGER STEE-
RING ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY INCREASE IN
THE FUTURE AS RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK PAST 48 HOURS AND A FASTER
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...(more info)

>> XANGSANE {pronounced: xang~sa}, meaning: Elephant. 
   Name contributed by: Laos
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 12.4N 126.0E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY XANGSANE (MILENYO)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Posted by MJ Klein at 09:28 0 comments

TS XANGSANE (MILENYO) rapidly strengthens... [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 26 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TROPICAL STORM XANGSANE (MILENYO) INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
AS IT DRIFTS ON A DANGEROUS PATH TOWARDS COASTAL BICOL
...STORM SIGNAL NUMBER TWO NOW RAISED.

...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL, SAMAR, QUEZON & AURORA
PROVINCES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TS
XANGSANE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: XANGSANE is expected to drift more
to the NW for the next 2 days parallel to the eastern
coast of Bicol Region and reaching Typhoon strength
Thursday afternoon, Sep 28. The core of the storm shall
pass more or less 50 km ENE of Catanduanes Island early
Thursday morning (Sep 28) & make landfall in the vicini-
ty of Baler, Aurora Thursday evening. The 3 to 5-day
(Sep 29 to Oct 1) Long-Range Forecast shows the storm
veering more Westward as it crosses Central Luzon
Friday morning (Sep 29) & finally moving out into the
South China Sea via La Union Saturday afternoon (Sep
30). XANGSANE shall then regain Typhoon status as it
heads for Hainan-Vietnam area by Sunday, Oct 1st. 

+ EFFECTS: XANGSANE's inner bands are now along the
Eastern Coast of Samar...while its Outer Bands conti-
nues spread across Bicol Region, Samar, Leyte & Masbate.
Cloudy with moderate to heavy rains and winds not in
excess of 55 km/hr can be expected tonight along its
outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be
expected tomorrow & Thursday along Bicol and Northern
Samar as XANGSANE approaches.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon
has awakened...currently being enhanced by XANGSANE...
now affecting Palawan, Western Mindanao and Rest of
Visayas. Cloudy skies with passing rains or thunder-
storms can be expected along the monsoon-affected
areas w/ southwesterly winds of 20 km/hr or higher.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.2º N...LONGITUDE 127.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 275 KM (243 NM) ESE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR
DISTANCE 2: 340 KM (185 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 3: 380 KM (205 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 4: 450 KM (243 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: COASTAL BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST TUE SEPTEMBER 26
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES, SORSOGON & SAMAR PROVINCES. 
#01 - ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, CAMARINES PROVINCES, MASBATE, 
      TICAO ISLAND, LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN ISLANDS, 
      CAMOTES ISLANDS, DINAGAT & SIARGAO ISLANDS.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEP: 12.7N 126.6E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEP: 13.5N 125.6E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEP: 15.3N 123.1E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.1N 127.3E.
^TS XANGSANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE LOW
EAST OF KYUSHU. TS XANGSANE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 
24 HOURS. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD WESTWARD. TS XANGSANE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...
(more info)

>> XANGSANE {pronounced: xang~sa}, meaning: Elephant. 
   Name contributed by: Laos
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 12.1N 127.1E / NW @ 07 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS XANGSANE (MILENYO)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Posted by MJ Klein at 01:28 0 comments

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