Monday, September 12, 2016

Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 003


Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 003

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 12 September 2016
Next Update: Monday Evening, 12 September 2016       


Current Status

Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) continues to move west-northwest and gain more strength increasing its threat to Extreme Northern Luzon.

Where is MERANTI (Ferdie)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Sep 12...0300 GMT.  Its eye was located over the mid-southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.1N 129.9E), about 859 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 870 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kphnear the center...Gustiness: 240 kph

Where is it heading?

West-northwest @ 24 kph, towards the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands and Cagayan - beginning Tuesday morning (Sep 13)


Storm Surge Info



2-Day Forecast Outlook

TY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to continue moving west-northwest throughout the outlook period.On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the southern and western portions of the North Philippine Sea on Tuesday morning (Sep 13) passing across the Batanes Group by midnight and is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Wednesday morning (Sep 14).


TY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to intensify further through Tuesday morning (Sep 13) with forecasted maximum sustained winds of 220 km/hr near the center.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Super Typhoon over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 360 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [11AM SEP 13: 19.5N 125.4E @ 220kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it nears the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 144 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes [11AM SEP 14: 21.1N 120.8 @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens further and is about to make landfall along the coasts and near the border of Guandong-Fujian Province, China…about 69 km east-southeast of Shantou City, China [11AM SEP 15: 23.1N 117.3 @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 310 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 745 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Sep 12, 2016
Location of Center: Near 18.1
° N Lat 129.9° E Lon
Distance 1: 760 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 805 km E of Palanan, Isabela 
Distance 3: 820 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan 
Distance 4: 868 km E of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 5: 1024 km ENE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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