Friday, September 16, 2016

Typhoon MALAKAS (GENER) Update Number 005


Typhoon MALAKAS (GENER) Update Number 005

Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Friday 16 September 2016
Next Update: Friday Evening, 16 September 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon MALAKAS (GENER) is now passing well to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands or over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel with no change in strength. Its westernmost outer rainbands are now affecting these islands including Babuyan and the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan.

This typhoon is forecast turn North-Northwesterly with a decrease in forward speed (16 kph) within the next 24 hours, cruising along the East Taiwan Sea. Malakas shall pass over the Yaeyama Island Chain on or before Saturday noon (Sep 17)…and moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late Saturday evening.

Where is Malakas (Gener)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 16...0300 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.5N 124.2E), about 229 km east of Basco, Batanes or 306 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 23 kph, towards the East Taiwan Sea and Yaeyama Island Chain.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.





Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 4 meters (3 to 13 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes and Babuyan Group of Islands, and Northeastern Cagayan - beginning today through Saturday early morning (Sep 17).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: Passing well to the east of Taiwan, in the vicinity of East Taiwan Sea approaching the Yaeyama Islands. Reaches its peak wind intensity while veering NNW to Northward away from the North Philippine Sea...about 157 km southeast of Hualien, Taiwan [8AM SEP 17: 23.4N 123.0E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EVENING: Exits the Northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it slows down and starts to recurve Northeastward. Its maximum sustained winds starts to weaken…about 134 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM SEP 18: 25.9N 122.6E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EVENING: Starts to accelerate northeastward across the southern part of the East China Sea, loses further strength…about 209 km north of Ishigakijima [8AM SEP 19: 27.2N 124.5E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):110 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 16, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.5º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 252 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes 
Distance 2: 351 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan

Distance 3: 407 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 567 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan 
Distance 5: 748 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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