Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 010


Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 010

Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Wednesday 14 September 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Afternoon, 14 September 2016       


Current Status

Extremely catastrophic tropical cyclone Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) continues to intensify while it starts to leave the Batanes Group of Islands. The circulation and the rain bands of this intense cyclone will continue to bring strong winds and moderate to heavy rains across the area until this evening.

Where is MERANTI (Ferdie)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Sep 14...2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the western part of the BashiChannel (near 21.2N 121.3E), about 110 km northwest of Basco, Batanes or 341 km north-northeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte.

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 285 kphnear the center...Gustiness: 345 kph

Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 20 kph, towards Southeastern China.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm MALAKAS, another active tropical cyclone in Northwestern Pacific has already entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was locally named "GENER". At 5:00 AM PhT today, its center was located some 1,273 km east of Casiguran, Aurora (15.4N 133.9E) with maximum sustained winds of 100 kph near the center and gustiness reaching up to 130 kph. It is forecast to move WNW at 23 kphacross the northeastern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea.

TS MALAKAS (GENER) is too far away to affect any part of the Philippines.

Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), TS MALAKAS (GENER) will veer to the Northwest and North by Thursday through Saturday (Sep 15 – Sep 17).

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest update on TS MALAKAS (GENER) which will be issued tomorrow afternoon.

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands shall still be affected by its outer circulation until this evening

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can still be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes Island Group –until mid-morning.

2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to move northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the western part of the Bashi Channel through late this morning and shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by afternoon. On Thursday early morning (Sep 15), the typhoon shall make landfall along the coast of Fujian Province, China and shall traverse thereafter the rugged terrain of Southeastern China through Friday early morning (Sep 16).


STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to rapidly weaken into a Typhoon status with decreased maximum sustained winds of 195 km/hr through Thursday early morning (Sep 15).  On Friday early morning (Sep 16), Meranti shall further weaken into a Tropical Storm with winds of only 75 km/hr as it traverses Southeastern China.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Typhoon (TY) status…as it is about to make landfall along the coast of Fujian Province, China…about 78 km south-southeast of Xiamen City, China [2AM SEP 15: 23.8N 118.3E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level:MEDIUM.


FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further into a Tropical Storm (TS)…as it traverses the rugged terrain of Southeastern China.…about 290 km west ofFuzhou City, China [2AM SEP 16: 26.2N 116.4 @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating over Southeastern China, just an area of low pressure…about 386 km northwest of Fuzhou City, China [2AM SEP 17: 28.3N 116.3 @ 35kph]. Confidence Level:LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 600 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 899 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 720 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 220 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 14, 2016
Location of Eye: Near 21.2
° N Lat 121.3° E Lon
Distance 1: 72 km NW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 317 km N of 
Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 294 km N of 
Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 4: 188 km SSE of 
Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
Distance 5: 730 km N of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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