Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 005


Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 005

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday 13 September 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Morning, 13 September 2016


Current Status

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) continues to rapidly intensify while over the North Philippine Sea and is now an extremely catastrophic tropical cyclone which is equivalent to a Category 5 Hurricane.  This intense typhoon is seriously threatening Extreme Northern Luzon and is expected to pass over or very close to the Batanes Island Group by late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning (Sep 14).   

Where is Meranti (Ferdie)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, September 12...1500 GMT.  The eye was located along the southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.1N 127.4E), about 551 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 586 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 270 kph near the center...Gustiness: 325 kph

Where is it heading?

West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the Batanes Island Group.

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands and Cagayan - beginning late Tuesday morning or afternoon (Sep 13).

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes-Babuyan-Calayan Island Group and Cagayan - beginning late Tuesday morning or afternoon (Sep 13).

2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to continue moving west-northwest through the next 24 hours, with a slight turn to the northwest during the end of the outlook period.On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea this afternoon…passing over or very close to the Batanes Island Group by late this evening or early Wednesday morning (Sep 14).  The super typhoon is forecast to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday noon or afternoon.

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to weaken slightly this evening with a decreased maximum sustained winds of 250 km/hr.  On Wednesday evening (Sep 14), Meranti's strength shall be below Super Typhoon status (185 km/hr) as it nears Southern China.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

TUESDAY EVENING: Starts to weaken as it approaches the Batanes Island Group...about 117 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM SEP 13: 20.3N 123.1E @ 250kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Exits PAR and no longer a super   typhoon as it moves across the northern part of the South China Sea...about 135 km west-southwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8PM SEP 14: 22.4N 119.0E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.       

THURSDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over the southern portion of Fujian Province (China), just a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 53 km northwest of Shantou City, China [8PM SEP 15: 23.8N 116.3E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 310 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 907 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 740 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):215 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 12, 2016
Location of Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 605 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 615 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 621 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 4: 647 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora 
Distance 5: 836 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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