Monday, September 26, 2016

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 005


Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 005

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Monday 26 September 2016
Next Update: Monday Morning, 26 September 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) has slowed down during the past 6 hours while continuing heading towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.  Its outer rainbands to spread across the eastern sections of Extreme Northern Luzon later today.

This typhoon is forecast to regain its acceleration West-Northwestward at 22 kph within the next 24 hours.  MEGI (HELEN) is still expected to strengthen until Tuesday morning (Sept 27).

Where is Malakas (Gener)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, September 25...1500 GMT.  The cloud-filled eye was located over the mid-southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.3N 128.8E), about 709 km east  of Basco, Batanes or 720 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 190 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 14 kph, towards the Western part of the North Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Batanes Group of Islands - beginning later tonight until Tuesday evening (Sep 27).



Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EVENING: Moving across the Western part of the North Philippine Sea as it continues to intensify, approaching the Bashi Channel-East Taiwan Sea Area....about 287 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes[8PM SEP 26: 21.6N 124.5E @ 180kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY EVENING: Just along the southwestern coast of Taiwan or entering the Taiwan Strait, weakens into a minimal Typhoon…about 108 km north-northwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8PM SEP 27: 23.5N 119.7E @ 145kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves overland across Southeastern China…about 134 km west-northwest of Shantou City, China [8PM SEP 28: 24.0N 115.5E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 210 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 950 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):220 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.3º N Lat 128.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 731 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes 
Distance 2: 767 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 805 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 919 km ESE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1042 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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