Monday, September 12, 2016

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 004


Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 004

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Monday 12 September 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Early Morning, 13 September 2016


Current Status

MERANTI rapidly intensified into a Super Typhoon as it churns closer to Extreme Northern Luzon…expected to pass over or very close to the Batanes Island Group by late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning (Sep 14).   

Where is Meranti (Ferdie)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 12...0900 GMT. The eye was located along the southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.6N 128.8E), about 696 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 746 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph

Where is it heading?

West-Northwest @ 23 kph, towards the Batanes Island Group.

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands and Cagayan - beginning Tuesday afternoon (Sep 13).

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes-Babuyan-Calayan Island Group and Cagayan - beginning Tuesday afternoon (Sep 13).

2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to continue moving west-northwest through the next 24 hours, with a slight turn to the northwest during the end of the outlook period.On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea on Tuesday afternoon…passing over or very close to the Batanes Island Group by late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning (Sep 14).  The super typhoon is forecast to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday afternoon.

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to intensify further through Tuesday afternoon (Sep 13) with forecasted maximum sustained winds of 240 km/hr…and shall start to weaken just below Super Typhoon intensity (215 kph) on Wednesday afternoon (Sep 14).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Reaches its peak intensity as it approaches the Batanes Group of Islands...about 252 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM SEP 13: 19.8N 124.3E @ 240kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Weakens near the coast of Southern Taiwan, exits the PAR...about 94 km south-southwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2PM SEP 14: 21.8N 120.0E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.      

THURSDAY      AFTERNOON:  Weakens rapidly into a minimal Typhoon as it makes landfall along the Southern Fujian Province of China…about 24 km east-northeast of Shantou City, China [2PM SEP 15: 23.5N 116.9E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 310 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 810 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):75 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 12, 2016
Location of Center: Near 18.5º N Lat 128.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 749 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 755 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora 
Distance 3: 757 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 4: 776 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes 
Distance 5: 933 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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