Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 011


Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 011

Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 September 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 27 September 2016


Current Status and Outlook

MEGI (HELEN) has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Eastern Taiwan...endangering the island. Its southern outer rain bands continue to affect the Batanes Group of Islands.

This typhoon is forecast to continue moving West-Northwest within the next 24 hours towards Central Taiwan at a speed of 22 km/hr.  Its core (eye & eyewall) is expected to make landfall along Mid-Eastern Taiwan this afternoon (between 2:00-4:00 PM).  MEGI (HELEN) will lose strength as it starts interacting with the mountains of Taiwan.

Meanwhile, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring occasional rains and gusty winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across MiMaRoPa andVisayas. Sea travel for small to medium size sea crafts at this time will be risky across the area.

Where is Megi (Helen)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 27...0300 GMT. The eye was located over the mid-western part of the East Taiwan Sea (near 23.5N 122.5E), about 340 km north of Basco, Batanes or 106 km east-southeast of Hualien City, Taiwan.

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 170 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 21 kph towards the mid portion of Eastern Taiwan.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Batanes Group of Islands – now until this evening (Sep 27).




Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 meters (3 to 10 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes Island Group – now until this evening (Sep 27).

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Rapidly weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes its final landfall over Fujian Province, China…about 13 km north of Xiamen City, China[8AM SEP 28: 24.6N 118.1E @ 85kph]Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING: Rapidly dissipates into an area of Low Pressure after traversing the mountain ranges of Fujian Province…about 62 km east-southeast of GanzhouCity, China [8AM SEP 29: 25.6N 115.5E @35kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.


**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 320 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 775 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):220 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 27, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 23.5º N Lat 122.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 192 km WSW of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 2: 308 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 242 km ENE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Distance 4: 557 km N of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 996 km N of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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