Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 006


Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 006

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 13 September 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Afternoon, 13 September 2016


Current Status

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE), an extremely catastrophic tropical cyclone has maintained its strength as it heads towards the Batanes Group of Islands, seriously threatening the area.

Where is MERANTI (Ferdie)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Sep 13...2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.5N 126.1E), about 430 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 442 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 270 kphnear the center...Gustiness: 325 kph

Where is it heading?

West-northwest @ 23 kph, towards the Batanes Group of Islands

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands and Cagayan - beginning this afternoon (Sep 13)


Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Island Group and Cagayan - beginning this afternoon (Sep 13).


2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to continue moving west-northwest through the next 24 hours...turning northwest on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea this morning…entering Luzon Strait this afternoon through evening and passing over the Batanes Group by late this evening or early Wednesday morning (Sep 14). The super typhoon is forecast to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around noontime Wednesday (Sep 14).



STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to keep its current strength until early tomorrow morning (Sep 14).  On Thursday early morning (Sep 15), Meranti'sstrength shall be below Super Typhoon status (185 km/hr) as it nears Southeastern China.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it passes over the Batanes Group…about 50 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes [5AM SEP 14: 20.7N 121.6E @ 270kph]. Confidence Level:MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens and is about to make landfall along the coast of Fujian Province…about 146 km east of Shantou City, China[5AM SEP 15: 23.5N 118.1 @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly…just a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves inland over southeastern China…about 368 km north-northwest of Shantou City, China [5AM SEP 16: 26.6N 115.9 @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 310 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 907 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 710 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 185 km from the center.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 13, 2016
Location of Eye: Near 19.5
° N Lat 126.1° E Lon
Distance 1: 486 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 468 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 507 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 560 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 765 km NE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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