Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 012


Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 012

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Tuesday 27 September 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Morning, 28 September 2016


Current Status and Outlook

The core of Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) has accelerated rapidly and made landfall over Hualien County, Eastern Taiwan between 1:30-2:00 PM this afternoon...currently weakening as it emerges over the west coast of Northwestern Taiwan.  The whole of Taiwan remains under the damaging winds (>100 km/hr winds) of this typhoon.

MEGI (HELEN) is forecast to move westward at a decreased forward speed of 17 kph within the next 24 hours. Its center is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight and will make its final landfall along Fujian Province by early tomorrow morning (Sept 28).  The typhoon will continue to rapidly lose strength as it interacts with the mountains of Southeastern China.

Meanwhile, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat)will bring occasional rains with thunderstorms and gusty winds not exceeding 40 km/hr across the Western Sections of Central Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas today. Sea travel for small to medium size sea crafts at this time will be risky across the area.

Where is Megi (Helen)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 27...0900 GMT. The center was located over the Northwestern Coasts of Taichung City and Miaoli County, Taiwan (near 24.5N 120.5E), about 42 km north-northwest of Taichung City, Taiwan or 471 km north-northwest of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 38 kph, towards Taiwan Strait and Southeastern China.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Batanes Group of Islands – now until this evening.



Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 meters (3 to 10 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes Island Group – now until this evening.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Traversing Fujian Province of China after making its last landfall, weakens into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns westward...about 123 km west-northwest of Xiamen City, China [2PM SEP 28: 24.7N 116.9E @ 70kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Turns northward across the northern part of Fujian Province as it dissipates rapidly into an area of low pressure…about 308 km northwest of Fuzhou City, China [2PM SEP 29: 27.3N 116.5E @ 20kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rainfall Accumulation: 25 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 750 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):150 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 24.5º N Lat 120.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 124 km WSW of Taipei, Taiwan 
Distance 2: 125 km NW of Hualien City, Taiwan
Distance 3: 243 km E of Xiamen City, China
Distance 4: 700 km N of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 1113 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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