Monday, September 12, 2016

Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 002


Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 002

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 12 September 2016
Next Update: Monday Afternoon, 12 September 2016       


Current Status

Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) has intensified further as it tracks generally west-northwest across the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea. It now poses an impending threat to Extreme Northern Luzon.

Where is MERANTI (Ferdie)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Sep 12...2100 GMT.  Its eye was located over the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 17.7N 131.0E), about 965 km east of Casiguran, Aurora or 995 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kphnear the center...Gustiness: 215 kph

Where is it heading?

West-northwest @ 23 kph, towards the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands -beginning Tuesday afternoon (Sep 13)


Storm Surge Info



2-Day Forecast Outlook

TY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to move west-northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the southern and western portions of the North Philippine Sea on Tuesday early morning (Sep 13) reaching the Batanes Group by Wednesday early morning (Sep 14).


TY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to intensify further through Tuesday early morning (Sep 13) with forecasted maximum sustained winds of 220 km/hrnear the center.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Super Typhoon over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 496 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [5AM SEP 13: 19.2N 126.8E @ 220kph].Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly over the Batanes Group of Islands…about 28 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [5AM SEP 14: 20.7N 122.1 @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further over the Formosa Strait after exiting the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 200 km south of Xiamen, China [5AM SEP 15: 22.7N 118.4 @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 310 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 715 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Sep 12, 2016
Location of Center: Near 17.7
° N Lat 131.0° E Lon
Distance 1: 837 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 917 km E of Palanan, Isabela 
Distance 3: 940 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan 
Distance 4: 984 km E of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 5: 1120 km ENE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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