Saturday, July 11, 2015

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update #006


Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update Number 006



Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Friday 10 July 2015
Next Update: Saturday Morning, 11 July 2015
Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) has slowed down as it continues to move in a northwesterly track towards Eastern China...seriously threatening Zhejiang Province.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and will bring occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms and moderate to strong winds of 20-60 kph across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa and Western Luzon including Metro Manila tonight through Saturday (Jul 11). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Northern Taiwan, Southeastern and Eastern China, and the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.



As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 10...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON)
Location: Over the southern part of the East China Sea (near 27.0N 124.2E)
About: 265 km north of Ishigakijima...or 360 km west-northwest of Okinawa, Japan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,000 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 230 km north and 185 km south from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 21 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 15 kph
Towards: Eastern China


TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) is expected to slow down further while moving in a northwesterly track during the next 24 hours...turns north-northwest to north and north-northeast through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, CHAN-HOM will be traversing the East China Sea tonight until Saturday afternoon (Jul 11) when it makes landfall over the northeastern part of Zhejiang Province area.

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) shall begin with its weakening trend within the next 12 hours...and will continue to lose strength rapidly by 48 hours after the system makes landfall off Southeastern China. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 140 kph by Saturday afternoon (Jul 11)...decreasing further rapidly to 95 kph on Sunday afternoon (Jul 12).

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Slows down and starts to weaken as it approaches the coast of Northern Zhejiang...about 145 km northeast of Wenzhou City, China [2PM JUL 11: 28.9N 121.8E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to weaken after making landfall over the northern coast of Zhejiang Province...turns northward to north-northeastward...downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 255 km northeast of Shanghai City, China [2PM JUL 12: 33.1N 122.9E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 10, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 27.0º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 340 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 765 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 965 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 540 km SE of Shanghai, China
Distance 5: 1430 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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