Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 003

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 003

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 03 July 2015
Next Update: Saturday Morning, 04 July 2015

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) has been relocated to the southwest of its previous position as it consolidates and strengthens further. This cyclone could threaten Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend. Its southwesternmost rainbands continue to affect some portions of Eastern Bicol Region and Northern Samar.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

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CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 03...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the Western-Central Philippine Sea (near 15.1N 125.5E)
About: 210 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 385 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 550 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 12 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to slowly move northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will continue to traverse the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Saturday and shall be approaching the eastern coast of Northern Cagayan by Sunday (Jul 05).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will likely maintain its strength throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds remain at 85 kph until Sunday afternoon (Jul 05).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it moves northwest over the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea...about 160 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM JUL 04: 16.8N 123.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Passing close to the northeastern coasts of Cagayan...maintaining its strength...about 55 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM JUL 05: 18.6N 122.6E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Gains strength as it continues to move northwest slowly across Extreme Northern Luzon...about 105 km west of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUL 06: 20.4N 121.0E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 03, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.1º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 395 km SE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 525 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 490 km SE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 485 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph