Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 004

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 004

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 04 July 2015
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 04 July 2015

LINFA (EGAY) has slowly veered northwestward during the past 12 hours...maintaining its strength. This cyclone could threaten Extreme Northern Luzon early next week. Its southwesternmost rainbands are currently affecting Bicol Region and Quezon Province...bringing light to moderate rains across the area.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 04...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the Western-Central Philippine Sea (near 15.8N 124.5E)
About: 245 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 260 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northwest @ 11 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to move northwest to north-northwest slowly throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will continue to traverse the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Sunday early morning...passing close to the eastern coast of Northern Cagayan through Monday early morning (Jul 06).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will be slightly gaining strength within the next 24 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 95 kph on Sunday early morning (Jul 05).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly intensifies as it moves north-northwest over the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea...about 165 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM JUL 05: 17.7N 123.5E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down as it passes close to the northeastern coast of Cagayan...maintaining its strength...about 95 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM JUL 06: 18.5N 123.0E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength...veering northward slowly across Extreme Northern Luzon...about 115 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUL 07: 20.0N 123.0E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Jul 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.8º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 260 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 380 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 360 km SE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 400 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph