Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 007

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 007

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 05 July 2015
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 05 July 2015

LINFA (EGAY) is now over Divilacan Bay as it starts to make landfall along the Northeasternmost part of Isabela. This storm will start traverse Cagayan today. Stormy weather will be expected across most parts of Northern Luzon today especially over Cagayan and Northern Isabela.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring occasional rains with moderate winds of 25-50 kph across the western sections of Visayas and Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Isabela, Cagayan including Calayan Islands, Mt. Province, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Abra and Ilocos Sur - Today through Monday morning (Jul 06).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Most parts of Aurora, Quirino, portion of Northern Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan - Today through Monday morning (Jul 06).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Northeastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan - Today.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 05...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the shoreline of Northeastern Isabela (near 17.4N 122.3E)
About: 5 km north of Divilacan, Isabela...or 65 km east-southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 9 kph
Towards: Cagayan

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to take a slow northwesterly track for the next 24 hours...turning northward through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will cross Cagayan throughout the day, passing along the Abra-Cagayan Border early tonight and shall emerge along the coast of Northwestern Cagayan or over the Balintang Channel by early Monday morning (Jul 06). It shall then traverse the Balintang Channel across the Luzon Strait from Monday morning through early Tuesday (Jul 07).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will weaken slightly within the next 24 hours when it traverses the landmass of Cagayan, but shall again strengthen upon reaching Balintang Channal and Luzon Strait beginning Monday through Tuesday. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 100 kph on Tuesday early morning (Jul 07).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges along the coast of Northwestern Cagayan with a possible shift in its track...about 30 km northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM JUL 06: 18.6N 120.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly while veering to the north across the Balintang Channel and Luzon Strait...about 85 km west of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUL 07: 20.4N 121.1E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it interacts to the southern coast of Taiwan...moving away from the Batanes Islands...about 135 km south of Hualien City, Taiwan [2AM JUL 08: 22.8N 121.3E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Jul 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.4º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km NNW of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 60 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 130 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 135 km N of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 350 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph