Friday, July 03, 2015

TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 002


Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 002



Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Friday 03 July 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 03 July 2015
10W (EGAY) becomes a Tropical Storm, with a global name: LINFA - a chinese word for Lotus. This cyclone could threaten Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend. Its southwesternmost rainbands affecting some portions of Eastern Bicol Region and Northern Samar.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

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Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.


As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 03...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.0N 127.6E)
About: 450 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 590 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 450 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 08 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon


TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to slow down slightly during the next 24 hours as it moves west-northwest...turning slightly northwestward on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will traverse the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Saturday and shall be approaching the eastern coast of Northern Cagayan by early Sunday morning (Jul 05).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will continue to gain strength throughout the forecast period...becoming a Severe Tropical Storm on Sunday morning. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 110 kph by early Sunday morning (Jul 05).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it moves west-northwest over the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea...about 385 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2AM JUL 04: 16.5N 126.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coasts of Isabela and Cagayan...strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm...about 175 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [2AM JUL 05: 17.3N 124.0E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Bearing down the east coast of Northern Cagayan, becomes a minimal Typhoon...about 40 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM JUL 06: 18.3N 122.5E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Jul 03, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.0º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 420 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 565 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 640 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 655 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 725 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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