Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 009

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 009

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 05 July 2015
Next Update: Monday Morning, 06 July 2015

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) has just crossed Ilocos Provinces and is now emerging over the West Philippine Sea while moving westward during the past 6 hours. Bad weather with heavy to extreme rainfall will continue across the Western parts of Northern Luzon tonight through Monday.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring occasional rains with moderate winds of 20-50 kph across the western sections of Visayas and Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Provinces, Western Abra, La Union, Benguet, and Western Pangasinan - Tonight through Monday afternoon (Jul 06).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Abra, Apayao, Western Kalinga, Western Mt. Province, Western Ifugao, Western Nueva Vizcaya, Rest of Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, and Northern Tarlac - Tonight through Monday afternoon (Jul 06).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Western Cagayan, Rest of Kalinga & Mt. Province, Rest of Ifugao, Rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Western Nueva Ecija, Rest of Tarlac, Pampanga, Rest of Zambales, Eastern Bulacan, Rizal, Bataan, Metro Manila, Western Laguna, Cavite, and Western Batangas - Tonight through Monday afternoon (Jul 06).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Ilocos Norte - Tonight.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 05...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Along the West Coast of Ilocos Norte (near 17.8N 120.3E)
About: 25 km north of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur...or 55 km south-southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North @ 07 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to take a slow northwest, north-northwest to northward movement for the next 12 to 24 hours...recurving to the north-northeastward through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will move slowly across the western part of Bashi Channel towards Southern Taiwan from Monday through Tuesday afternoon (Jul 07).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will regain its strength the next 12 to 24 hours, with continued slight intensification until Tuesday afternoon (Jul 07). The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 100 kph on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies while turning northward near the northwest coast of Ilocos Norte...about 135 km west-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2PM JUL 06: 19.1N 119.7E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to slightly intensify while passing along the western part of the Bashi Channel - moving on a slow, north-northeast direction...about 135 km west of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUL 07: 20.4N 120.6E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to weaken as it bears down the coast of Southern Taiwan...about 105 km southeast of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2PM JUL 08: 22.0N 121.1E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Jul 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.8º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km SSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 135 km N of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 3: 150 km WNW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 160 km NNW of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 375 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph