Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 008

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 008

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 1:45 PM PhT (05:45 GMT) Sunday 05 July 2015
Next Update: Sunday Evening, 05 July 2015

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) has moved west-northwestward over the past 6 hours while crossing Extreme Northern Luzon...and is now along the Apayao-Abra Border, about 25 kilometers west of Conner, Apayao. This storm will traverse Ilocos Norte this afternoon. Bad weather with heavy to extreme rainfall will continue across most parts of Northern Luzon today especially along the western sections - from Ilocos Provinces down to Pangasinan.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring occasional rains with moderate winds of 20-50 kph across the western sections of Visayas and Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Provinces, Western Abra, La Union, Benguet, and Western Pangasinan, - Today until Monday morning (Jul 06).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Abra, Apayao, Western Kalinga, Western Mt. Province, Western Ifugao, Western Nueva Vizcaya, Rest of Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, and Northern Tarlac - Today through Monday morning (Jul 06).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Western Cagayan, Rest of Kalinga & Mt. Province, Rest of Ifugao, Rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Western Nueva Ecija, Rest of Tarlac, Pampanga, Rest of Zambales, Eastern Bulacan, Rizal, Bataan, Metro Manila, Western Laguna, Cavite, and Western Batangas - Today through Monday morning (Jul 06).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Apayao and Ilocos Norte - Today.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 05...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Along the Apayao-Abra Border (near 17.8N 121.1E)
About: 70 km southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...or 65 km west-northwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-Northwest @ 9 kph
Towards: Ilocos Norte

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to take a slow northwest to north-northwest track for the next 24 hours...recurving to the north to north-northeastward through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will cross the southern or central part of Ilocos Norte this afternoon, and shall emerge along west coast of Ilocos Norte later tonight. By Monday morning (Jul 06), the storm shall be over the westernmost part of the Balintang Channel or over the West Philippine Sea. It shall then traverse the Luzon Strait, just along the western part of Bashi Channel on Tuesday morning (Jul 07).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will regain wind intensity upon emerging along the west coast of Ilocos Norte within the next 12 to 24 hours, with continued slight intensification until Tuesday morning (Jul 07). The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 100 kph on Tuesday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Emerges along the West Philippine Sea-Balintang Channel Area as it re-intensifies...turns northward...about 130 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM JUL 06: 19.2N 120.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to slightly intensify while passing along the western part of the Bashi Channel, on a north to north-northeast direction...about 170 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes [8AM JUL 07: 20.9N 120.4E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it makes landfall over Southern Taiwan...about 45 km east-southeast of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8AM JUL 08: 22.5N 120.7E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Jul 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.8º N Lat 121.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 75 km ENE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 2: 85 km SSE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 3: 90 km SW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 165 km NNE of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 365 km N of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph