Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update #002

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update Number 002

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (FALCON) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Wednesday 08 July 2015
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 09 July 2015

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) has slightly strengthened as it moves along the open waters of the North Philippine Sea. This system is forecast to threaten the Ryukyus, Northern Taiwan, and Southeastern China this weekend.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and will bring occasional to frequent rains with moderate to strong winds of 20-60 kph across Western Visayas and Western Luzon including Metro Manila tonight through Saturday (Jul 09-11). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Meanwhile, at 5:00 pm today, Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) was located some 180 km west-southwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan or about 365 km west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (22.2N 118.6E)... with maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness up to 120 kph. It was moving Northwestward at 06 kph during the past 6 hours in the general direction of Southern China.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Southeastern and Eastern China, and the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 08...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON)
Location: Over the northeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.7N 131.9E)
About: 1,045 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...or 1,040 km east of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 150 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 980 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km east and 100 km west from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 26 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Northern Taiwan-Ryukyus Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) is expected to maintain its northwesterly track...accelerating slightly during the second half of the outlook period. On the forecast track, CHAN-HOM will be passing over the northeastern part of the North Philippine Sea this evening through Thursday night (Jul 09)...exiting the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday early morning (Jul 10).

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) will continue to strengthen throughout the forecast outlook, with a possibility of becoming a minimal Super Typhoon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph by Friday afternoon (Jul 10).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it moves across the North Philippine Sea on a northwesterly track...about 735 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUL 09: 23.2N 128.4E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak strength as it maintains its northwesterly track, passing north of Ishigakijima-Yaeyama Islands...outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 250 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM JUL 10: 26.2N 123.8E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it makes landfall over the coast of Southeastern China...about 25 km northwest of Wenzhou City, China [2PM JUL 11: 28.1N 120.5E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Jul 08, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 20.7º N Lat 131.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 770 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 895 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1115 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1160 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1345 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph