Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update #003 [Corrected]

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update Number 003 [Corrected]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (FALCON) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Thursday 09 July 2015
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 09 July 2015

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) still on a northwesterly track across the North Philippine Sea...continues to intensify. The threat to Ryukyus, Northern Taiwan, and Southeastern China increases.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and will bring occasional to frequent rains with thundersorms and moderate to strong winds of 20-60 kph across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa and Western Luzon including Metro Manila today through Saturday (Jul 09-11). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Meanwhile, at 5:00 am today, Typhoon LINFA (EGAY) upgraded from Tropical Storm (TS) was located some 95 km southeast of Shantou City, China or about 520 km west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (22.7N 117.2E)... with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness up to 150 kph. It was moving West-Northwest at 11 kph during the past 6 hours in the general direction of the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China. This typhoon is currently threatening Hong Kong and Macau.

Residents and visitors along Batanes Islands, Taiwan, Southeastern and Eastern China, and the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 09...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON)
Location: Over the northeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 22.1N 130.0E)
About: 845 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 540 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 980 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km south and 100 km north from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 23 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 25 kph
Towards: Northern Taiwan-Ryukyus Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

There is no change in its forecast outlook, TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) is expected to continue moving on a generally northwest track...accelerating slightly during the second half of the outlook period. On the forecast track, CHAN-HOM will be passing over the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea this morning through early Friday morning (Jul 09), exiting the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). By early Saturday morning (Jul 11), the typhoon shall be off the coast of Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces as it prepares to make landfall.

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) will continue to strengthen through the next 12 to 24 hours...and eventually weaken by 48 hours due to the system making landfall off Southeastern China. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 200 kph by early Friday morning (Jul 10)...and decreasing to 150 kph on Saturday.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it moves close to Ishigakijima and Yaeyama Islands...exits PAR...about 160 km east-northeast of Ishigakijima [2AM JUL 10: 24.9N 125.8E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches its peak strength as it maintains its northwesterly track, prepares to make landfall near Zhejiang-Fujian Border...about 165 km southeast of Wenzhou City, China [2AM JUL 11: 27.1N 122.0E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens after making landfall...moving over land slowly across Zhejiang Province...about 65 km north-northwest of Wenzhou City, China [2AM JUL 12: 28.5N 120.4E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Jul 09, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 22.1º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 645 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 860 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 900 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 915 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1255 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph