Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update #004

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update Number 004

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (FALCON) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Thursday 09 July 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 10 July 2015

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) maintains its strength as it continues to move in a northwesterly track across the North Philippine Sea... The threat to Ryukyus, Northern Taiwan, and Southeastern China increases.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and will bring occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms and moderate to strong winds of 20-60 kph across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa and Western Luzon including Metro Manila today through Saturday (Jul 09-11). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Meanwhile, Typhoon LINFA (EGAY) has weakened into a Tropical Storm (TS) after it made landfall along the eastern coast of Guandong Province, China. At 5:00 pm today, its center was located some 155 km east-northeast of Hongkong City, China or about 735 km west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (22.8N 115.0E)... with maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and gustiness up to 140 kph. It was moving West-Northwest at 19 kph during the past 6 hours along the coasts of Guangdong Province, China.

Residents and visitors along Batanes Islands, Taiwan, Southeastern and Eastern China, and the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 09...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON)
Location: Over the mid-northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 23.9N 128.2E)
About: 740 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 290 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,000 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 175 km south and 220 km north from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 25 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 25 kph
Towards: Ryukyus

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

There is no change in its forecast outlook, TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) is expected to continue moving on a generally northwest track.. On the forecast track, CHAN-HOM will be exiting the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight. By Friday through Saturday (Jul 11), the typhoon shall be traversing the East China Sea...and shall make landfall over the coast of Zhejiang Province on Saturday noon.

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) will continue to strengthen through the next 12 to 24 hours...and eventually weaken by 48 hours due to the system making landfall off Southeastern China. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 195 kph by Friday afternoon (Jul 10)...and decreasing to 185 kph on Saturday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies as it moves in a northwesterly track across the East China Sea...about 250 km north-northwest of Ishigakijima [2PM JUL 10: 26.7N 123.9E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak strength as it maintains its northwesterly track...makes landfall over the southern coast of Zhejiang Province...about 65 km north-northwest of Wenzhou City, China [2PM JUL 11: 28.5N 120.4E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens and recurves to north and north-northeast slowly across Zhejiang Province...about 35 km north-northwest of Shanghai City, China [2PM JUL 12: 31.5N 121.3E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 09, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 23.9º N Lat 128.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 400 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 745 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 865 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 680 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1290 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph