Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 006

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 006

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 12:45 AM PhT (16:45 GMT) Sunday 05 July 2015
Next Update: Mid-Morning, 05 July 2015

LINFA (EGAY) has changed its course during the past 6 hours...drifting to the west, closer to the eastern coast of Isabela. It is likely to veer to the northwest in the succeeding hours. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the northern shore of Isabela Sunday morning (Jul 05)...with a Strike Probability of 70 to 90 percent.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains across the western sections of Visayas and Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Isabela, Cagayan including Calayan Islands, Mt. Province, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Abra and Ilocos Sur - Sunday through Monday morning (Jul 06).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Most parts of Aurora, Quirino, portion of Northern Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan - Sunday through Monday morning (Jul 06).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Northeastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan - Sunday (Jul 05).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 04...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the Western-Central Philippine Sea (near 17.0N 122.9E)
About: 60 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela...or 130 km northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 10 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-Northwest @ 8 kph
Towards: Northeastern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to veer to the northwest and north-northwest with slow speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will be moving along the shores of Northern Isabela and eastern coast of Cagayan through Sunday afternoon...and shall emerge over the Babuyan Channel by Sunday evening. It shall then traverse the Balintang Channel by Monday evening (Jul 06).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will be losing strength within the next 24 hours when it traverses along the eastern coasts of Isabela and Cagayan. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 75 kph on Sunday evening (Jul 05).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it moves along the eastern coasts of Isabela and Cagayan...about 30 km southwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM JUL 05: 18.3N 122.0E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EVENING: Regains strength and veers to the north-northwest and north...about 75 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes [8PM JUL 06: 20.3N 121.3E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EVENING: Gains more strength as it veers further to the north-northeast across extreme Northern Luzon...about 135 km north of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM JUL 07: 22.0N 121.9E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Jul 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.0º N Lat 122.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 115 km E of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 3: 170 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 130 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 355 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph