Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 011

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 011

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Monday 06 July 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Morning, 07 July 2015

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) has drifted northward during the past 12 hours as it reorganizes over the West Philippine Sea. Its outer rainbands will continue to bring occasional rains across the western sections of Ilocos Region tonight.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring occasional rains with moderate winds of 20-50 kph across the western sections Luzon, Mindoro and Northern Palawan. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Provinces, La Union, Western Benguet, Western Pangasinan, Zambales, Bulacan, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, portions of Laguna, Western Batangas, and Northwestern Mindoro incl. Lubang Island - Until Tuesday afternoon (Jul 07).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Some parts of Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Rest of Benguet, Tarlac, Rest of Rizal, Some parts of Northern Quezon-Nueva Ecija-and-Nueva Vizcaya, Rest of Laguna, Rest of Batangas, and Most parts of Mindoro - Until Tuesday afternoon (Jul 07).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 06...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 19.3N 119.3E)
About: 185 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...or 230 km west of Calayan Island, Cagayane
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: North @ 05 kph
Forecast Movement: North to North-Northeast @ 08 kph
Towards: Taiwan Strait

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to move slowly north to north-northeast throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will move slowly across the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday afternoon (Jul 07)...and shall be along the Southwest Coast of Taiwan by Wednesday afternoon (Jul 08).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will slightly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours...then will start to weaken as it interacts with the rugged terrain of Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon (Jul 08). The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 95 kph by Wednesday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies slightly while drifting slowly north to north-northeastward along the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 240 km west of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM JUL 07: 20.8N 119.5E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it moves along the west coast of Taiwan...about 55 km northwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2PM JUL 08: 23.0N 119.9E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Southeastern China...just a Tropical Depression (TD) dissipationg over land...about 100 km north-northeast of Xiamen, China [2PM JUL 09: 25.4N 118.3E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Jul 06, 2015
Location of Center: Near 19.3º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 220 km NNE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 3: 310 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 350 km NNW of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 555 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph