Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 10W (EGAY) Update Number 001

Tropical Depression 10W (EGAY) Update Number 001

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Thursday 02 July 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 03 July 2015

Tropical Depression 10W (EGAY) has slightly gained strength as it moves north-northwestward during the past 6 hours over the central part of the Philippine Sea.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TD 10W (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 02...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD 10W (EGAY)
Location: Over the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.8N 128.8E)
About: 505 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 735 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 30 to 325 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 530 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: North-Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 10 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 10W (EGAY) is expected to slow down during the next 24 hours as it moves northwest...shifting to west-northwest on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, TD 10W will continue to slowly traverse the central part of the Philippine Sea on Friday afternoon and shall be moving towards the eastern coasts of Northern Luzon on Saturday afternoon (Jul 04).

TD 10W (EGAY) will continue to gain strength throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph on Saturday afternoon (Jul 04).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it moves northwest over the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 575 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM JUL 03: 16.2N 127.5E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Shifts to the west-northwest, towards the eastern coasts of Northern Luzon...continues to intensify...about 335 km east-southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2PM JUL 04: 17.1N 124.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Still gaining strength as it turns northwesterly slowly, closer to the northeastern coast of Cagayan...about 205 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM JUL 05: 18.1N 124.0E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 02, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.8º N Lat 128.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 500 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 620 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 3: 840 km East of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 780 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 820 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph