Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 012

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 012

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Tuesday 07 July 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 07 July 2015

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) has weakened as it continues to drift northward during the past 12 hours. Its outer rainbands will continue to bring occasional rains across the western sections of Northern Luzon today.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring occasional rains with moderate winds of 20-50 kph across the westernmost provinces of Central and Southern Luzon including Occidental Mindoro, Northern Palawan and coastal areas of Western Panay. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Western section of Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon.

RAINFALL

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Coastal areas of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur and La Union, and Western sections of Pangasinan, Zambales and Batangas including Lubang Island - Until Wednesday morning (Jul 08).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 07...2300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the northwestern border of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) (near 20.3N 119.3E)
About: 270 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...or 255 km west-northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: North @ 07 kph
Forecast Movement: North @ 06 kph
Towards: Taiwan Strait

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to continue moving slowly north during the next 24 hours...shifting to north-northwest and northwest on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will be moving away slowly from the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning...and shall be along the Southern part of the Taiwan Strait by Wednesday early morning (Jul 08). It will be approaching the southeastern coast of China on Thursday early morning (Jul 09) .

TS LINFA (EGAY) will slightly re-intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph by Wednesday early morning (Jul 08) through Thursday (Jul 09).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies slightly as it continues to drift slowly northward off the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 280 km west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM JUL 08: 21.4N 119.2E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it shifts to north-northwest and northwest...approaching the southeastern coasts of China...about 118 km east-southeast of Shantou City, China [2AM JUL 09: 23.2N 117.8E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating into an area of Low Pressure Area over Southeastern China...about 130 km northwest of Shantou City, China [2AM JUL 10: 24.2N 115.8E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Jul 07, 2015
Location of Center: Near 20.3º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 320 km NNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 3: 280 km W of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 465 km NNW of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 670 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph