Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update #001

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update Number 001

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (FALCON) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Wednesday 08 July 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 08 July 2015

Typhoon CHAN-HOM has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last night and was already given a local name: FALCON...expected just to pass along the open waters of the North Philippine Sea without any direct effect to the country. This system is forecast to threaten the Ryukyus, Northern Taiwan, and Southeastern China this weekend.

This cyclone will enhance anew the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and will bring occasional rains with moderate to strong winds of 20-60 kph across Northern Palawan, Mindoro, Western Visayas, Western Sections of Luzon incl. Metro Manila beginning today through Saturday (Jul 08-11). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Meanwhile, at 5:00 am today, Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) was located some 210 km southeast of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan or about 305 km west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (21.2N 118.9E)... with maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness up to 110 kph. It was moving North-Northwestward at 07 kph during the past 6 hours in the general direction of Southern China.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Southeastern and Eastern China, and the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 08...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON)
Location: Over the northeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.3N 134.1E)
About: 1,255 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...or 1,270 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 980 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km east and 100 km west from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Northern Taiwan-Ryukyus Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) is expected to maintain its northwesterly track and speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, CHAN-HOM will be passing over the northeastern part of the North Philippine Sea today through Thursday evening (Jul 09)...and shall be approaching Ishigakijima and Yaeyama Group of Islands by early Friday morning (Jul 10).

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) will continue to strengthen throughout the forecast outlook, with a possibility of becoming a minimal Super Typhoon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph by early Friday morning (Jul 10).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it moves across the North Philippine Sea on a northwesterly track...about 900 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUL 09: 21.6N 130.6E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches its peak strength as it maintains its northwesterly track, passing near Ishigakijima-Yaeyama Islands...about 180 km east of Ishigakijima [2AM JUL 10: 24.5N 126.1E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it approaches the shorelines of Northern Taiwan and Southeastern China, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...turns west-northwestward...about 170 km north-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM JUL 11: 26.5N 122.0E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Jul 08, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.3º N Lat 134.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 1030 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1165 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1310 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1435 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1475 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph