Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update #005

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) Update Number 005

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (FALCON) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (11:45 GMT) Friday 10 July 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 10 July 2015

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (FALCON) has intensified rapidly as it passed in between the Islands of Okinawa and Ishigakijima early this morning...now outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This powerful typhoon is now a serious threat to Eastern China particularly Zhejiang Province.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and will bring occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms and moderate to strong winds of 20-60 kph across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa and Western Luzon including Metro Manila today through Saturday (Jul 10-11). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Northern Taiwan, Southeastern and Eastern China, and the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 10...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON)
Location: Over the southern part of the East China Sea (near 25.4N 125.9E)
About: 200 km northeast of Ishigakijima...or 225 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,000 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 295 km north and 205 km south from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 27 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 29 kph
Towards: Eastern China

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) is expected to continue moving on a generally fast northwesterly track within the next 24 hours...decreasing its forward speed as it turns north-northwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, CHAN-HOM will be traversing the East China Sea today until early Saturday morning. By Sunday early morning (Jul 11), the typhoon shall make landfall over northeastern part of Zhejiang Province area.

TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) could still intensify within the next 12 hours before it starts to decay through 24 hours...and eventually weaken rapidly by 48 hours due to the system making landfall off Southeastern China. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph by early Saturday morning (Jul 11)...and decreasing to 150 kph on the first morning hours of Sunday (Jul 12).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaches the coast of Zhejiang Province as it starts to weaken...about 160 km west-southwest of Wenzhou City, China [2AM JUL 11: 27.8N 122.3E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it slows down and turns northward...makes landfall over the northern coast of Zhejiang Province...about 65 km southwest of Ningbo City, China [2AM JUL 12: 29.4N 121.2E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) and recurves to the north-northeast slowly across the southeastern part of Jiangsu Province...about 185 km north-northeast of Shanghai City, China [2AM JUL 13: 32.7N 122.3E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Jul 10, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 25.4º N Lat 125.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 435 km E of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 685 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 855 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 790 km SE of Shanghai, China
Distance 5: 1300 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph