Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 005

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 005

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Saturday 04 July 2015
Next Update: Early Morning, 05 July 2015

LINFA (EGAY) continues to move northwest closer to the eastern coasts of Isabela and Cagayan...threatening these provinces. Its western outer rainbands are now affecting the eastern section of Northern Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Northeastern Cagayan by tomorrow afternoon (July 05)...with a Strike Probability of 80 to 90 percent.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains across the western sections of Visayas and Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Isabela, Cagayan including Calayan Islands, Mt. Province, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Abra and Ilocos Sur - beginning tonight through Monday morning (Jul 06).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Most parts of Aurora, Quirino, portion of Northern Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan - beginning tonight through Monday morning (Jul 06).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Portion of Northeastern Cagayan - on Sunday (Jul 05).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 04...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the Western-Central Philippine Sea (near 16.9N 123.4E)
About: 120 km east of Palanan, Isabela...or 160 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 350 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 7 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) will continue to move northwest with decreasing speed during the next 24 hours...veering and accelerating slightly to north-northwest on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will be approaching the northeastern coast of Cagayan on Sunday afternoon...and shall make landfall over the northeastern tip of Cagayan by late afternoon. It shall then traverse the Balintang Channel by Monday afternoon (Jul 06).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will be slightly gaining strength within the next 24 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 95 kph on Sunday afternoon (Jul 05).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies as it moves northwest very slowly closer to the northeastern coast of Cagayan ...about 75 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM JUL 05: 17.9N 122.5E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly after making landfall over the northeastern tip of Cagayan...veers to north-northwest...about 80 km southwest of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUL 06: 19.9N 121.5E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens anew as it veers further to north and north-northeast across extreme Northern Luzon...about 80 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM JUL 07: 21.5N 122.0E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Jul 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.9º N Lat 123.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 175 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 3: 220 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 195 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 370 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph