Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 008

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 010

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Monday 06 July 2015
Next Update: Monday Evening, 06 July 2015

Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) has began reorganizing while over the West Philippine Sea as it continued drifting slowly westward, away from Ilocos Region. Its outer rainbands will continue to bring occasional to frequent rains across the western sections of Northern and Central Luzon today.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring occasional rains with moderate winds of 20-50 kph across the western sections of Visayas and Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Provinces, Western Abra, La Union, Benguet, Zambales, and Western Pangasinan - Until Monday afternoon (Jul 06).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Abra, Apayao, Western Kalinga, Western Mt. Province, Western Ifugao, Western Nueva Vizcaya, Rest of Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Bataan, Metro Manila, Western Laguna, Cavite, and Western Batangas - Until Monday afternoon (Jul 06).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 06...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 17.9N 118.9E)
About: 160 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur...or 185 km west-southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: North to North-Northeast @ 08 kph
Towards: Taiwan

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to take a slow north-northwest to northward movement for the next 12 to 24 hours...recurving to the north-northeastward through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will move slowly across the western part of Bashi Channel towards Southern Taiwan from Tuesday through Wednesday (Jul 08).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will continue to gain strength the next 12 to 24 hours, with continued slight intensification through 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 100 kph by early Wednesday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies while drifting slowly north to north-northeastward near the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 215 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM JUL 07: 19.6N 119.2E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to slightly intensify while passing along the western part of the Bashi Channel - moving on a north-northeast direction...about 180 km west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM JUL 08: 21.0N 120.1E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it makes landfall over Southern Taiwan...about 65 km north-northeast of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2AM JUL 09: 23.1N 120.6E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Jul 06, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.9º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km WSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 205 km NW of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 3: 245 km NW of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 4: 260 km NNW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 445 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph