Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Monday, 27 August 2012 [9:55 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 024
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 27 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

TEMBIN (IGME) just barely a Typhoon as it weakened rapidly during the past 6 hours...heading ENE towards the Southern Tip of Taiwan. Outer rainbands to reach Taiwan and the Batanes Group of Islands tonight.

TEMBIN together with Typhoon BOLAVEN will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect Western Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces. Mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned area.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon August 27, 2012
Location of Eye: 20.9� N Lat 119.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 226 km (SSW) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 280 km (W) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 305 km (WNW) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 339 km (NNW) away from Laoag City
Distance 5: 321 km (NW) away from Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 6: 430 km (SW) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 7: 528 km (SSW) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 8: 667 km (SW) closer to Ishigaki Jima
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Taiwan: Tuesday Morning [2-4AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move NE to NNE during the next 12 to 24 hours...turning North to NNE-ward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around midnight and cross the Southern tip of Taiwan by dawn of Tuesday. It will then pass near the eastern coast of Taiwan throughout Tuesday...and by Wednesday through Thursday, TEMBIN will pass parallel to the coast of Eastern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Continued decrease in its strength will be expected during the next 2 to 3 days...and TEMBIN (IGME) will weaken into a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday afternoon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers (135 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm...passing near the East Coast of Taiwan...about 84 km ESE of Hualien City, Taiwan [5PM AUG 28: 23.6N 122.3E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving away from the Northeastern Coast of Taiwan across the East China Sea...about 267 km East of Wenzhou City, China [5PM AUG 29: 27.7N 123.4E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Just near the coast of Eastern China...about 150 km ENE of Shanghai, China [5PM AUG 30: 31.7N 122.9E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea)...but will reach the Southern tip of Taiwan early tomorrow morning, just before sunrise. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach and affect Southern Taiwan early tomorrow morning.. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach Southern Taiwan & the Batanes Islands later tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ilocos Norte, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, and Taiwan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China, Southern & Western Taiwan. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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