Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HAIKUI [12W]

for Sunday, 05 August 2012 [2:06 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 05, 2012):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.

HAIKUI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 004
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 05 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm HAIKUI (12W) now on its closest approach to Okinawa as it moves WNW.

This storm, although will not directly affect the Philippines, is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun August 05, 2012
Location of Center: 26.9� N Lat 128.7� E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (ENE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 170 km (SSW) away from Amami, Japan
Distance 3: 799 km (ESE) closer to Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 985 km (NE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Today [Ongoing til 8PM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 990 km (535 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

HAIKUI (12W) is expected to continue moving generally WNW throughout the forecast period and will slow down further. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will start to move away from Okinawa Island later this afternoon or tonight and will reach the shoreline of Southeastern China, just to the ENE of Wenzhou City on Thursday noon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and the storm is expected to become a Typhoon on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles) from the center. HAIKUI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 990 kilometers (535 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Nears typhoon status as it moves farther away ftom Okinawa Island and into the East China Sea...about 258 km WNW of Okinawa City [11AM AUG 06: 27.6N 125.5E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it slows down while over the East China Sea...approaching the coast of Southeastern China...about 275 East of Wenzhou City [11AM AUG 07: 28.0N 123.5E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Intensifying as it reaches the shores of Southeastern China...about 121 km ENE of Wenzhou City...prepares to make landfall [11AM AUG 08: 28.5N 121.8E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Northern Okinawa. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa, Amami and the Rest of the Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern Japan, Extreme Northern Luzon, South Korea, and Southeastern China (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, a newly-formed Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Depression 13W (Unnamed) situated to the NW of Wake Island in the far Western Pacific Ocean...not a threat to land. Its center was located about 682 km NW of Wake Island (23.4N 161.7E)...with maximum sustained winds of 45 kph and was moving SSW @ 13 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: PHILIPPINES particularly the Western Sections (except Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Haikui's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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