Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HAIKUI [12W]

for Monday, 06 August 2012 [12:40 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 05, 2012):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.

HAIKUI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 007
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 06 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm HAIKUI (12W) drifting westward slowly across the East China Sea...no change in strength.

This storm, although will not directly affect the Philippines, it will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon August 06, 2012
Location of Center: 27.2� N Lat 125.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 232 km (WNW) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 393 km (WSW) away from Amami, Japan
Distance 3: 468 km (ENE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 491 km (ESE) closer to Wenzhou, China
Distance 5: 500 km (SE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 6: 603 km (SE) closer to Shanghai, China
Distance 7: 824 km (NNE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
Landfall [ETA] to Zhejiang Province: Wed Early AM [1-3AM HKT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 870 km (470 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

HAIKUI (12W) is expected to move WNW during the next 24 hours...turning NW throughout the forecast period. Its general motion is forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will continue to move across the East China Sea today until Tuesday...and will make landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China by early Wednesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and HAIKUI could become a Typhoon on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. HAIKUI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 870 kilometers (470 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a typhoon as it moves closer to the Southeastern Coast of China...about 207 km East of Wenzhou City, China [11AM AUG 07: 27.9N 122.8E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipating overland as it makes landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China...just a Tropical Storm...about 122 km North of Wenzhou City [11AM AUG 08: 29.1N 120.7E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to dissipate over Zhejiang Province as it moves NW...about 137 km West of Ningbo City, China [11AM AUG 09: 29.7N 120.2E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach the coast of Zhejiang Province in SE China on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Northern Taiwan and the eastern shores of Eastern and Southeastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern & SE China, Northern Taiwan, Okinawa, Amami and the Rest of the Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Japan, Extreme Northern Luzon, and South Korea. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 13W (Unnamed) continues to move slowly erratically across the far Western Pacific Ocean...remains not a threat to land. Its center was located about 895 km NNW of Wake Island (26.2N 162.1E)...with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and was moving NNW @ 09 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional to continuous showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: PHILIPPINES particularly the Western Sections (except Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Haikui's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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