Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Tuesday, 21 August 2012 [8:48 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 21 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Powerful Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) has moved NNE slowly during the past 12 hours...now with powerful winds of 215 km/hr. Threat to the Philippine Islands diminishing as it aims for Taiwan.

Since the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) remains weak, the pull of Typhoon TEMBIN on this seasonal wind system is still not much. However, isolated to scattered rains and thunderstorms will continue is some parts of Luzon including Metro Manila and Baguio City.

Meanwhile, the other cyclone - Tropical Storm BOLAVEN (16W) continues to intensify while over the Western Pacific Ocean, NW of Guam. Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue August 21, 2012
Location of Eye: 20.0º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 338 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 365 km (ESE) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 356 km (NE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 395 km (ENE) away from Calayan Island
Distance 5: 418 km (NE) away from Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 579 km (SE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 7: 668 km (SSE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 8: 589 km (SE) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 9: 511 km (SSE) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 10: 740 km (NNE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Eastern Taiwan: Thursday Afternoon [2PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to continue moving slowly northward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will turn sharply WNW to Westward during the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will not directly affect any part of the Philippines as it will remain over the open sea. This typhoon will be approaching the East Coast of Taiwan early Thursday morning...and will make landfall south of Hualien City on Thursday afternoon at approx. 2PM and traverse Taiwan. By early Friday morning, TEMBIN will emerge over the Taiwan Strait in the direction of Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. Still some increase in strength will be expected during the next few days, prior to making landfall...and TEMBIN could become a Super Typhoon by Wednesday afternoon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center. TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Nearing Super Typhoon status as it turns WNW to Westward...about 302 km NE of Basco, Batanes [6AM AUG 22: 21.9N 124.5E @ 230kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Starts to lose strength as it bears down the coast of Eastern Taiwan...about 147 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 23: 22.9N 122.4E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Emerges over the Taiwan Strait after crossing Taiwan...weakens to Category 3...approaching Eastern Guangdong in Southern China...about 99 km NW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 24: 23.3N 119.7E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

IRREGULAR EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - particularly the southwestern and western bands are affecting & spreading across the coastal areas of Cagayan and the tiny island group of Babuyan, Batanes and Calayan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern and Northern Luzon and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm BOLAVEN (18W) continues to rapidly intensify while over the Western Pacific Ocean. Remains not a threat to land. Its center was located about 691 km NW of Guam, CNMI (18.2N 140.7E)...with maximum sustained winds of 85 kph and was moving WNW @ 05 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON paerticularly the WESTERN SECTIONS including METRO MANILA. Calm & light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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