Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Monday, 20 August 2012 [11:48 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 20 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) shoots up to near Category 3 status as it continues to gather strength over the warm Philippine Sea...now started to drift northward away from the coast of Cagayan. Majority of the forecast models maintains a Taiwan landfall scenario.

Since the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) remains weak, the pull of Typhoon TEMBIN on this seasonal wind system is still not much. However, isolated to scattered rains and thunderstorms will continue is some parts of Luzon including Metro Manila and Baguio City.

Meanwhile, the other cyclone - Tropical Storm BOLAVEN (16W) has likewise strengthened while over the Western Pacific Ocean, NW of Guam. Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon August 20, 2012
Location of Eye: 18.7º N Lat 125.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 296 km (E) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 334 km (NE) away from Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 369 km (ENE) away from Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 415 km (NE) away from Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 360 km (ENE) away from Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 374 km (ESE) away from Calayan Island
Distance 7: 518 km (NNE) away from Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 8: 373 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 9: 600 km (NNE) away from Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 617 km (NE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
CPA [ETA] to Eastern Taiwan: Thursday Afternoon [9AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to continue moving very slowly northward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will turn sharply NW to Westward during the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will not directly affect any part of the Philippines as it will remain over the open sea. This typhoon will be approaching the East Coast of Taiwan Wednesday evening...and will make landfall just south of Hualien City on Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. Continued increase in strength will be expected during the next few days...and TEMBIN will become a Category 4 Typhoon by late Tuesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Category 4 Typhoon as it begins to track NW...about 300 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [6PM AUG 21: 21.2N 124.8E @ 215kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Reaches its peak winds of 220 kph...approaching the east coast of Taiwan...about 219 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 22: 22.8N 123.3E @ 220kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Category 4 typhoon...moving Westward as it traverses Central & Western Taiwan...about 78 km North of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 23: 23.3N 120.3E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - particularly the southwestern bands are affecting & spreading across the coastal areas of Cagayan and Isabela. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Cagayan, Isabela and the Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern and Northern Luzon and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm BOLAVEN (18W) also rapidly intensifying while over the Western Pacific Ocean. Remains not a threat to land. Its center was located about 649 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (18.1N 141.2E)...with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and was moving NNW @ 11 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON paerticularly the WESTERN SECTIONS including METRO MANILA. Calm & light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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