Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HAIKUI [12W]

for Sunday, 05 August 2012 [7:39 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 05, 2012):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.

HAIKUI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 005
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 05 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm HAIKUI (12W) has started to move away from Okinawa...nears Typhoon strength as it threatens Southeastern China.

This storm, although will not directly affect the Philippines, is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun August 05, 2012
Location of Center: 27.5� N Lat 127.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 113 km (NNW) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 198 km (WSW) away from Amami, Japan
Distance 3: 681 km (ESE) closer to Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 652 km (ESE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 5: 961 km (NNE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
Landfall [ETA] to Zhejiang Province: Wed Afternoon [2PM-4PM HKT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

HAIKUI (12W) is expected to continue moving generally WNW during the next 24 to 48 hours...turning NW-ward through 72 hours. Its general motion is forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will be moving into the East China Sea tonight until Tuesday...and will make landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China on Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and HAIKUI could become a Typhoon on late tonight or Monday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. HAIKUI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches typhoon status as it moves farther away ftom Okinawa Island and into the East China Sea...about 318 km WNW of Okinawa City [5PM AUG 06: 27.7N 125.1E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gather strength as it slows down while traversing the East China Sea...approaching the coast of Southeastern China...about 216 East of Wenzhou City [5PM AUG 07: 28.1N 122.9E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall over Zhejiang Province...about 97 km NNE of Wenzhou City [5PM AUG 08: 28.7N 121.3E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Rest of Okinawa...but will start to recede late tonight until Monday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Amami and other parts of the Ryukyu Islands...but will start to recede late tonight until Monday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 310 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa, Amami and the Rest of the Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern Japan, Extreme Northern Luzon, South Korea, and Southeastern China (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, the newly-formed Tropical Cyclone has strengthened into Tropical Storm 13W (Unnamed)...situated to the NW of Wake Island in the far Western Pacific Ocean...not a threat to land. Its center was located about 682 km NW of Wake Island (23.7N 162.2E)...with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and was moving NNE @ 11 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with isolated occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: PHILIPPINES particularly the Western Sections (except Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Haikui's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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