Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Friday, 24 August 2012 [2:23 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 014
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 24 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) has weakened after crossing the Southern part of Taiwan...emerges along the Southwestern Coast of Taiwan. A counter-clockwise loop followed by a northeasterly movement is anticipated beginning Sunday through Monday as it interacts with the much larger Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN). Typhoon Conditions occurring across Southern Taiwan as the cyclone passes by.

TEMBIN together with Typhoon BOLAVEN will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect Palawan, Visayas, Western Mindanao, Central & Southern Luzon incl. Metro Manila today until the weekend. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) has tracked NW-ward in the across the open sea...will not directly affect any part of the Philippines. Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu August 23, 2012
Location of Eye: 22.3� N Lat 120.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 266 km (SW) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 228 km (NW) away from Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 467 km (WSW) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 231 km (SW) away from Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 328 km (SSW) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 33 km (S) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 356 km (NNW) away from Calayan Island
Distance 8: 332 km (SE) closer to Xiamen City, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Southern Taiwan: Ongoing [Until 6PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 550 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 39 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move slowly WSW to SW-ward during the next 12 to 48 hours...and will turn counter-clockwise South to ENE-ward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will slow down while over the West Philippine Sea...and will move East to ENE back towards the Southern Coast of Taiwan on Monday. The turn-back track of TEMBIN is mainly due to the direct interaction with Typhoon BOLAVEN which is dictating Tembin's motion.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. Some decrease in strength will be expected during the next 2 to 3 days.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY NOON: Moving slowly into the West Philippine Sea...weakens slightly...about 234 km WSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [12PM AUG 25: 21.7N 118.3E @ 185kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Slows down as it starts to move on a counter-clockwise loop back towards the Southeastern Coast of Taiwan...about 349 km SW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [12PM AUG 26: 20.6N 117.7E @ 175kph].
MONDAY NOON: Starts interacting with the larger Typhoon Bolaven...turns East to ENE-ward slowly while over the West Philippine Sea...in the direction of the SE Coast of Taiwan...about 184 km SW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [12PM AUG 27: 21.3N 119.2E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over the SW Coast of Taiwan. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting the coastal areas of Southwestern Taiwan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Rest of Central & Southern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Taiwan, the tiny island group of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Ishigaki and Yaeyama Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 550 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & Western Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon, Southern China and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) has moved NW during the past 6 hours while over the open waters of the Philippine Sea. Its center was located about 1187 km ENE of Basco, Batanes (21.3N 133.4E)...with maximum sustained winds of 195 kph with higher gusts and was moving NW @ 11 kph towards Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. This system will not directly affect any part of the Philippines To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, and LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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