Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HAIKUI [12W]

for Wednesday, 08 August 2012 [7:18 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 05, 2012):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.

HAIKUI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 012
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 08 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

HAIKUI (12W) downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it starts making landfall over Zhejiang Province, just south of the city of Ningbo...expected to dissipate today.

Meanwhile, the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) will start to weaken as HAIKUI makes landfall. Receding of the monsoon rainclouds across Western and Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila will be expected beginning today through Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing occasional "on-&-off" showers, rains & squalls will still be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will remain moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed August 08, 2012
Location of Center: 29.2º N Lat 121.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 78 km (SSE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 2: 160 km (NE) closer to Wenzhou, China
Distance 3: 223 km (SSE) closer to Shanghai, China
Distance 4: 467 km (N) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 583 km (NNW) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 6: 679 km (WNW) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 7: 957 km (NNW) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Zhejiang Province
Landfall [ETA] to Zhejiang Province: Ongoing [4AM-2PM HKT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

HAIKUI (12W) is expected to continue moving NW during the next 24 hours with little change on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will move across the rugged terrain of Zhejiang Province today until Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid dissipation of Haikui will be expected today until Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. HAIKUI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Depression (TD) as it continues to dissipate over Zhejiang Province...about 231 km WSW of Shanghai, China [5AM AUG 09: 30.9N 119.0E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DECAYING EYE - just south of Ningbo City, China. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Eastern Zhejiang Province. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the whole of Zhejiang Province. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Eastern and Southeastern China and Northern Taiwan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 130 mm (high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern & Southeastern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Japan, Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and South Korea. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 13W (Unnamed) moving slowly across the far Western Pacific Ocean, with no threat to land. Its center was located about 917 km NNE of Marcus Island (30.9N 160.1E)...with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph and was moving NW @ 11 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional "on-&-off" showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN & CENTRAL LUZON & VISAYAS including METRO MANILA, MINDORO AND CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Haikui's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation