Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SAOLA [GENER]

for Thursday, 02 August 2012 [2:10 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).

SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 019
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 02 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/Sat+RadarFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon SAOLA (GENER) has remained almost stationary while still over Northeastern Taiwan...starts to weaken due to land interaction. Typhoon Conditions continuing across Northern & Mid-Central Taiwan.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, rest of Luzon, Bicol Region, Mindoro, and Western Visayas today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu August 02 2012
Location of Center: 24.6� N Lat 121.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 44 km South of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 67 km North of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 259 km NNE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 263 km West of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 5: 354 km East of Xiamen, China
Distance 6: 285 km SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 7: 388 km SSE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 8: 423 km North of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 9: 457 km NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Northern Taiwan-SE China
CPA [ETA] to Northeastern Taiwan: Ongoing [until 6PM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,020 km (550 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SAOLA (GENER) is expected to move NW for the next 12 to 24 hours...and will bend WNW-ward within 36 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will continue to track across Northern Taiwan this afternoon and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight as it emerges over the Taiwan Strait. On Friday morning, SAOLA will again make landfall, and this time over Southeastern China...or just to the northeast of Fuzhou City. It will then start to move over land across China through Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected and SAOLA will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm on Friday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,020 kilometers (550 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY NOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall over Southeastern China...about 146 km NNW of the Fuzhou City [12PM AUG 03: 27.3N 118.7E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Dissipates over land as it moves across China...about 697 km West of Ningbo City, China [12PM AUG 04: 29.5N 114.3E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - just south of Hualien City, Taiwan. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Northeastern and Northern Taiwan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Rest of Taiwan & Taiwan Strait. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Batanes Island Group, Southeastern China and Ishigaki Island Group. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Taiwan, & Ishigaki Island Group. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern & Western Philippines, Okinawa Islands and Southeastern China (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Typhoon DAMREY (11W) weakened slightly as it nears the coast of Eastern China...expected to make landfall just NNW of Shanghai later tonight. Its center was located about 109 km SW of Kagoshima, Japan (33.4N 123.3E)...with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph and was moving WNW @ 38 kph towards Eastern China. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, REST OF LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS, & WESTERN MINDANAO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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