Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KAI-TAK [HELEN]

for Thursday, 16 August 2012 [5:32 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).

KAI-TAK MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 013
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 16 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN) still maintaining its West to WNW movement towards Southern China...Outer rainbands affecting and spreading across the Southern Chinese Coastline incl. Hainan Island.

Meanwhile, KAI-TAK will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Palawan, and Mindoro today. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous. Improving weather conditions will be expected later today through the weekend.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu August 16, 2012
Location of Eye: 19.6º N Lat 115.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km (SSE) closer to Hong Kong
Distance 2: 324 km (SSE) closer to Macau
Distance 3: 474 km (ENE) closer to Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 495 km (ESE) closer to Haikou, Hainan
Distance 5: 505 km (ESE) closer to Zhanjiang, China
Distance 6: 609 km (WNW) away from Laoag City
Distance 7: 611 km (WNW) away from Vigan City
Distance 8: 682 km (W) away from Calayan Island
Distance 9: 691 km (NW) away from Baguio City
Distance 10: 738 km (WSW) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Leizhou Peninsula
CPA [ETA] to Leizhou Peninsula: Friday Afternoon [2PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to continue moving generally WNW to Westward throughout the forecast period, with some increase in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will continue to move across the South China Sea tonight until Friday morning and will make landfall over the Leizhou Peninsula, Western Guangdong on Friday afternoon. It will then start to move across the Gulf of Tonkin, very near the shores of Western Guangdong on Friday evening...and make its final landfall over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border around midnight of Saturday and traverse the rugged terrain of Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Some intensification will be expected during the next 12 to 24 hours...and KAI-TAK could reach peak winds of 140 kmh/hr by Friday morning just before it makes landfall.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Just a Tropical Storm (TS)...crossing the Leizhou Peninsula...about 116 km West of Zhanjiang City, China [5PM AUG 17: 21.1N 109.3E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipates over Northern Vietnam...just an area of Low Pressure near the Vietnamese-Chinese Border...about 267 km WNW of Hanoi, Vietnam [5PM AUG 18: 22.1N 103.5E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (South China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea & South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach the coastal areas of Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Leizhou Peninsula on Friday morning. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southern China including Hainan Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern China including Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Luzon, Taiwan & Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some scattered to occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN LUZON & MINDORO incl. CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, and SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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