Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME] - Update #022

 

for Monday, 27 August 2012 [9:46 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

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TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

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TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 022
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 27 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

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Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) weakens to Category 2 as it completes its u-turn motion...now moving southeast to east-southeastward in the direction of Taiwan.

TEMBIN together with Typhoon BOLAVEN will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect Western Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces. Mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned area.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon August 27, 2012
Location of Eye: 20.3� N Lat 118.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 374 km (SSE) away from Shantou, China
Distance 2: 467 km (S) away from Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 342 km (SW) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 351 km (NW) closer to Laoag City
Distance 5: 389 km (WSW) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 6: 397 km (W) closer to Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: SE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Taiwan: Tuesday Morning [6AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move slowly ENE during the next 12 to 24 hours...turning NE, NNE to Northward within the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early tomorrow morning and make landfall over the Southern tip of Taiwan on Tuesday morning. It will traverse the Southern and Eastern Shoreline of Taiwan throughout Tuesday and will move out of Taiwan early Wednesday morning. By Thursday morning, TEMBIN will make its last and final landfall along Eastern China, just south of Metropolitan Shanghai.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. Continued decrease in strength will be expected during the next 2 to 3 days...and TEMBIN (IGME) will weaken into a Tropical Storm (TS) on Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers (135 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Moving ENE closer to Southern Taiwan...about 67 km South of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [5AM AUG 28: 22.0N 120.4E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Moving away from the NE Coast of Taiwan...about 98 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan...weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) [5AM AUG 29: 25.7N 122.2E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Prepares to make lanfall over Eastern China...about 49 km East of Ningbo, China [5AM AUG 30: 29.8N 122.0E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern and Western Taiwan and the smaller islands of Batanes, Calayan, and Babuyan Islands later today. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China, Southern & Western Taiwan. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

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PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

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External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:



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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph 

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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