Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Saturday, 25 August 2012 [11:55 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 018
11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) Sat 25 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) cruising west-southwest over the South China Sea...may start to u-turn on Sunday...weakens slightly.

TEMBIN together with Typhoon BOLAVEN will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect Palawan, Western Visayas, and Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila through the weekend. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Meanwhile, the large and powerful Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) is about to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat August 25, 2012
Location of Eye: 21.8� N Lat 116.5� E Lon
Distance 1: 179 km (S) away from Shantou, China
Distance 2: 342 km (SSW) away from Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 243 km (ESE) closer to Hong Kong
Distance 4: 400 km (WSW) away from Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 560 km (WNW) away from Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 6: 578 km (WNW) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: South China Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move slowly SW to SE-ward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will make a u-turn, moving ENE, NE to NNE during the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will re-enter PAR on Monday evening and make landfall over Southern Taiwan on Tuesday morning. The u-turn track of TEMBIN is mainly due to the pull and interaction with Typhoon BOLAVEN which will dictate Tembin's motion.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength will be expected during the next 2 to 3 days...but will weaken upon making landfall over Southern Taiwan on Tuesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Making a u-turn...starts moving east to ENE towards Southern Taiwan...about 330 km SSE of Shantou City, China [11PM AUG 26: 20.5N 117.4E @ 150kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Accelerating NE to NN...approaching the coast of Southern Taiwan...about 122 km South of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [11PM AUG 27: 21.5N 120.3E @ 160kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Just along northern shores of Taiwan...about 30 km NE of Taiwan, Taiwan [11PM AUG 28: 25.2N 121.8E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
WEAK EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southern & Western Taiwan, the tiny island group of Batanes, Southern and Southeastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southeastern China, Southern & Western Taiwan. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon, Southeastern China and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) is about to exit PAR this Saturday. Its eye was located about 313 km SE of Okinawa, Japan or 962 km NE of Basco, Batanes (24.7N 130.2E)...with maximum sustained winds of 230 kph with higher gusts and was moving WNW @ 13 kph towards Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. This system will not directly affect any part of the Philippines. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS, and WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

N/A

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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