Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KAI-TAK [HELEN]

for Saturday, 18 August 2012 [9:05 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday August 18, 2012):

Ending the 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).

KAI-TAK MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 017 **FINAL**
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 18 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

KAI-TAK (HELEN) downgraded to a Tropical Storm after making landfall over Northern Vietnam. The storm passed over Hanoi City early this morning. Tropical Storm Conditions will continue across the area w/ improving weather later today or Sunday.

Meanwhile, a new strong Tropical Disturbance, tagged 96W (LPA) is rapidly forming over the North Philippine Sea, ENE of Extreme Northern Luzon...and was located about 335 km ESE of Basco, Batanes or 367 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan (20.2N 125.2E)...drifting South slowly...with winds of 35 km/hr. A new page will be created on this new system later today if it develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

*This is the last and final update on Kai-tak (Helen).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat August 18, 2012
Location of Center: 21.1º N Lat 105.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 63 km (W) away from Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 2: 428 km (NW) away from Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 3: 550 km (W) away from Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
NOAA 6hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to continue moving generally Westward throughout the forecast period, with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will continue to move inland...crossing the northern part of Laos and entering Myanmar on Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. Continued decrease in strength will be expected...and KAI-TAK will weaken into a Tropical Depression tonight...and dissipate into an area of Low Pressure on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipates along Myanmar...just an area of low pressure...about 562 km West of Hanoi City [5AM AUG 19: 21.5N 100.4E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Northern Vietnam including Hanoi. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across rest of Northern Vietnam, Guangxi Province and Hainan Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to moderate rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 120 mm (moderate to high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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