Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAIKUI [12W]

for Tuesday, 07 August 2012 [8:08 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 05, 2012):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.

HAIKUI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 009
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 07 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

HAIKUI (12W) strengthened into a Typhoon as it moves on a snail-pace track towards Southeastern China.

This storm, although is not directly affecting the Philippines, will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections of Luzon & Visayas incl. Metro Manila. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue August 07, 2012
Location of Center: 27.1� N Lat 123.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 331 km (ESE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 328 km (NE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 390 km (SE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 4: 291 km (NNW) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 5: 393 km (WNW) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 6: 750 km (NNE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Zhejiang Province
Landfall [ETA] to Zhejiang Province: Wednesday [10AM-6PM HKT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

HAIKUI (12W) is expected to move West to WNW during the next 24 hours...turning NW-ward by 72 hours. Its general motion will remain slow during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will continue to move across the East China Sea today until early Wednesday...and will make landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China by Wednesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours before HAIKUI loses strength.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. HAIKUI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it approaches the shores of Southeastern China particularly Zhejiang Province, moving WNW...about 128 km East of Wenzhou City, China [5AM AUG 08: 28.1N 122.0E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Dissipating overland after making landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China...downgraded to a Tropical Storm...about 146 km WSW of Ningbo City, China [5AM AUG 09: 29.4N 120.1E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression while rapidly dissipating over Zhejiang Province...turns North...about 193 km West of Ningbo City, China [5AM AUG 10: 30.0N 119.5E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach the coast of Zhejiang Province in SE China tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the coastal areas of Eastern and Southeastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern & SE China, Northern Taiwan, Okinawa, Amami and the Rest of the Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Japan, Extreme Northern Luzon, and South Korea. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 13W (Unnamed) continues to move NNW across the far Western Pacific Ocean with no threat to land. Its center was located about 1154 km NNW of Wake Island (28.8N 162.0E)...with maximum sustained winds of 85 kph and was moving NNW @ 13 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional to continuous showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON & VISAYAS...more intense along METRO MANILA, PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, CENTRAL LUZON, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Haikui's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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