Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 14W [HELEN]

for Monday, 13 August 2012 [8:36 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 08, 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on 14W (HELEN).

14W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 001
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 13 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

The strong disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon has strengthened into Tropical Depression 14W (HELEN)...threatens Extreme Northern Luzon as it moves Westward.

Meanwhile, this depression will just slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the Western Sections of Luzon incl. Metro Manila beginning Tuesday. Mostly cloudy conditions w/ some scattered to passing showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be slight to moderate.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 14W (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon August 13, 2012
Location of Center: 16.5º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 568 km (ESE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 469 km (NE) away from Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 590 km (NE) away from Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 503 km (NE) away from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 609 km (ENE) closer to Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 660 km (ESE) closer to Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 634 km (ESE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Northern Cagayan: Thursday [12AM-6AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 570 km (305 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

14W (HELEN) is expected to move WNW during the next 24 hours...turning NW-ward with some decrease in its forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 14W will be traversing the Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Group of Islands on Thursday...and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Friday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours...and 14W could become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a TS as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...about 271 km ENE of Palanan Bay, Isabela [6AM AUG 14: 17.6N 125.0E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Still gaining strength as it traverses the Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Group of Islands...about 74 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [6AM AUG 15: 19.4N 122.2E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves out of PAR...about 153 km SSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 16: 21.3N 119.8E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the coastal areas of Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region & Northern Samar. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high) along areas near the center of 14W (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 14W (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Helen's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 14W (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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